Getafe
vs
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Getafe 1–0 Rayo Vallecano
The model makes it 35% Getafe, 34% draw, 31% Rayo Vallecano — fair odds of 2.86, 2.94 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Getafe 0.96, Rayo Vallecano 0.86.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Getafe are 11th on 8 points from 7 games; Rayo Vallecano are 12th on 8 points from 7 games — La Liga.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Malaga.
- Rayo Vallecano have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Osasuna.
- Last 6 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Getafe 0–2 Rayo Vallecano.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Getafe at 35% here. Across 3,039 settled matches (as of 5 October 2026), 2,396 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
- L0-1away to Osasuna31 August 2026
Rayo Vallecano
- D1-1away to Osasuna19 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol15 September 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid12 September 2026
- W3-2Racing Santander5 September 2026
- L2-5away to Barcelona31 August 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rayo Vallecano conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Rayo Vallecano.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
- 3 May 2026Getafe 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 2 January 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–1 GetafeLa Liga
- 2 May 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 24 August 2024Getafe 0–0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
- 13 April 2024Rayo Vallecano 0–0 GetafeLa Liga
- 2 January 2024Getafe 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Leading scorers: Getafe and Rayo Vallecano
Getafe
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Rayo Vallecano
- Sergio Camello7 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.81 for Rayo Vallecano. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.96 goals for Getafe and 0.86 for Rayo Vallecano. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.59 in attack and 0.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rayo Vallecano rate 0.94 and 1.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,433 correct results out of 3,044 settled predictions (47%), with 301 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Getafe against 0.86 for Rayo Vallecano. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.59/0.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.94/1.01 for Rayo Vallecano.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Getafe at home · Rayo Vallecano away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Getafe 7, Rayo Vallecano 7.
Getafe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Rayo Vallecano have let in 4 there.
Rayo Vallecano score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Getafe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Getafe
- vs FC Lugano22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 34%
- at Athletic Club25 Oct · La Ligawin 25%
- vs Sevilla1 Nov · La Ligawin 35%
Rayo Vallecano
- vs Elche25 Oct · La Ligawin 43%
- vs Celta Vigo1 Nov · La Ligawin 38%
- at Real Sociedad8 Nov · La Ligawin 28%
- vs Valencia22 Nov · La Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.