Getafe
vs
Sevilla
La Liga prediction
Our model says: Getafe 1–0 Sevilla
The model makes it 34% Getafe, 33% draw, 33% Sevilla — fair odds of 2.94, 3.03 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Getafe 0.94, Sevilla 0.92.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 28%, under 2.5: 72%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Getafe and Sevilla are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Getafe are 14th on 8 points from 8 games; Sevilla are 5th on 14 points from 8 games — La Liga.
- Getafe have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Barcelona.
- Sevilla have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw away to Levante.
- Last 6 meetings: Sevilla 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Getafe 0–1 Sevilla.
More La Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Getafe vs Sevilla
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Getafe at 34% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Getafe vs Sevilla
Getafe
- L0-3away to Barcelona10 October 2026
- W1-0Malaga20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis17 September 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna13 September 2026
- D1-1Celta Vigo7 September 2026
Sevilla
- D3-3away to Levante12 October 2026
- L1-3Barcelona19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Deportivo La Coruna16 September 2026
- W1-0Valencia11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Espanyol6 September 2026
What these results say
- Getafe failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Getafe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Getafe had two goals or fewer.
- Sevilla scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 8 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Getafe vs Sevilla
Getafe and Sevilla have met 6 times in the records we hold, Sevilla has won 4 of them to Getafe's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Sevilla won the last one 1–0 on 22 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| Sevilla | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 10 goals, an average of 1.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 22 Feb 2026
La LigaGetafe 0–1 Sevilla - 25 Aug 2025
La LigaSevilla 1–2 Getafe - 1 Feb 2025
La LigaGetafe 0–0 Sevilla - 14 Sep 2024
La LigaSevilla 1–0 Getafe - 30 Mar 2024
La LigaGetafe 0–1 Sevilla - 16 Jan 2024
Copa del ReyGetafe 1–3 Sevilla
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Getafe carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.83 for Sevilla. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.94 goals for Getafe and 0.92 for Sevilla. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Getafe rate 0.57 in attack and 0.76 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sevilla rate 0.98 and 1.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sevilla, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,111 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Getafe the highest probability at 34%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Getafe against 0.92 for Sevilla. Getafe's attack/defence rating is 0.57/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.02 for Sevilla.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Getafe at home · Sevilla away
League matches only, La Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
GetafeSevilla
Getafe are 13th after 8 La Liga matches (between 7th and 20th so far); Sevilla are 5th after 8 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All La Liga matches this season: Getafe 8, Sevilla 8.
Getafe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Sevilla have let in 1 there.
Sevilla score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Getafe have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Getafe
- vs Brighton5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 24%
- at Villarreal8 Nov · La Ligawin 17%
Sevilla
- vs Alaves6 Nov · La Ligawin 43%
- vs Real Betis22 Nov · La Ligawin 34%
- at Real Sociedad29 Nov · La Ligawin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.