Qingdao Jonoon
vs
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League prediction
Our model says: Qingdao Jonoon 1–2 Sichuan Jiuniu
The model makes it 34% Qingdao Jonoon, 26% draw, 40% Sichuan Jiuniu — fair odds of 2.94, 3.85 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Qingdao Jonoon 1.47, Sichuan Jiuniu 1.64.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Edge to Sichuan Jiuniu: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Qingdao Jonoon's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Sichuan Jiuniu's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Qingdao Jonoon are bottom on 14 points from 29 games; Sichuan Jiuniu are 11th on 32 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Qingdao Jonoon have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Shanghai Shenhua.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Sichuan Jiuniu 3–2 Qingdao Jonoon.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sichuan Jiuniu at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu
Qingdao Jonoon
Super League
- L0-2away to Chongqing Tongliang Long24 October 2026
- L0-4Shenyang Urban17 October 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan9 October 2026
- L1-2away to Dalian Zhixing5 September 2026
- L1-5Wuhan Three Towns29 August 2026
Sichuan Jiuniu
Super League
- W2-1Shanghai Shenhua24 October 2026
- L1-3away to Dalian Zhixing17 October 2026
- D2-2Henan Jianye9 October 2026
- D1-1away to Shandong Luneng5 September 2026
- L0-1SHANGHAI SIPG28 August 2026
What these results say
- Qingdao Jonoon did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Jonoon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qingdao Jonoon had three goals or more.
- Sichuan Jiuniu conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sichuan Jiuniu scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Qingdao Jonoon | 29 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 34 | 62 | -28 | 14 |
| 11 | Sichuan Jiuniu | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Qingdao Jonoon vs Sichuan Jiuniu
- 30 May 2026Sichuan Jiuniu 3–2 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 19 July 2025Sichuan Jiuniu 4–0 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 1 March 2025Qingdao Jonoon 0–1 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 17 August 2024Qingdao Jonoon 1–0 Sichuan JiuniuSuper League
- 26 April 2024Sichuan Jiuniu 1–3 Qingdao JonoonSuper League
- 19 September 2022Sichuan Jiuniu 0–2 Qingdao JonoonLeague One
Leading scorers: Qingdao Jonoon and Sichuan Jiuniu
Qingdao Jonoon
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Sichuan Jiuniu
GoalsAssists
- Wesley Moraes135
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Qingdao Jonoon carry a model rating of 5.98 against 6.17 for Sichuan Jiuniu. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.64 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Qingdao Jonoon rate 0.41 in attack and 2.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sichuan Jiuniu rate 0.48 and 1.89.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sichuan Jiuniu the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon against 1.64 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Qingdao Jonoon's attack/defence rating is 0.41/2.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.89 for Sichuan Jiuniu.
How the model reaches 40% for Sichuan Jiuniu to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sichuan Jiuniu to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Qingdao Jonoon's ratings add 50 points and Sichuan Jiuniu's ratings take away 40 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage30%−7
- Qingdao Jonoon's ratings80%+50
- Sichuan Jiuniu's ratings40%−40
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Qingdao Jonoon at home · Sichuan Jiuniu away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Qingdao Jonoon 29, Sichuan Jiuniu 29.
Qingdao Jonoon score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sichuan Jiuniu have let in 20 there.
Sichuan Jiuniu score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Qingdao Jonoon have let in 13 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.