Shanghai Shenhua
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Qingdao Youth Island
The model makes it 55% Shanghai Shenhua, 24% draw, 21% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Shanghai Shenhua 2.10, Qingdao Youth Island 1.10.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to Shanghai Shenhua: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Shanghai Shenhua's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Qingdao Youth Island's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Shanghai Shenhua are 8th on 37 points from 29 games; Qingdao Youth Island are 7th on 39 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Shanghai Shenhua have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sichuan Jiuniu.
- Qingdao Youth Island have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Yunnan Yukun.
- Last 5 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 4 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Shanghai Shenhua.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shanghai Shenhua at 55% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island
Shanghai Shenhua
Super League
- L1-2away to Sichuan Jiuniu24 October 2026
- W3-1away to Wuhan Three Towns18 October 2026
- W7-1Yunnan Yukun10 October 2026
- W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026
- L2-3Shandong Luneng28 August 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League
- D1-1Yunnan Yukun24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Beijing Guoan18 October 2026
- L0-4Dalian Zhixing11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tianjin Teda29 August 2026
What these results say
- Shanghai Shenhua scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shanghai Shenhua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Shanghai Shenhua had three goals or more.
- Qingdao Youth Island did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Youth Island conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 63 | 50 | +13 | 37 |
| 7 | Qingdao Youth Island | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island
- 30 May 2026Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 17 October 2025Qingdao Youth Island 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 10 May 2025Shanghai Shenhua 4–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 30 June 2024Qingdao Youth Island 0–1 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 8 March 2024Shanghai Shenhua 2–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
Leading scorers: Shanghai Shenhua and Qingdao Youth Island
Shanghai Shenhua
GoalsAssists
- Rafael Ratão191
Qingdao Youth Island
No player in Super League's leading scorers — 32 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shanghai Shenhua carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.23 for Qingdao Youth Island. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.10 goals for Shanghai Shenhua and 1.10 for Qingdao Youth Island. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.75 in attack and 1.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.40 and 1.48.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Qingdao Youth Island, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Shanghai Shenhua against 1.10 for Qingdao Youth Island. Shanghai Shenhua's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.48 for Qingdao Youth Island.
How the model reaches 55% for Shanghai Shenhua to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Shanghai Shenhua to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Shanghai Shenhua's ratings take away 25 points and Qingdao Youth Island's ratings add 35 points, which lands on the published 55%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Shanghai Shenhua's ratings20%−25
- Qingdao Youth Island's ratings55%+35
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shanghai Shenhua at home · Qingdao Youth Island away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Shanghai Shenhua 29, Qingdao Youth Island 29.
Shanghai Shenhua score most often in the 61–75 minute window (16 goals); Qingdao Youth Island have let in 6 there.
Qingdao Youth Island score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Shanghai Shenhua have let in 14 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.