Shandong Luneng
vs
Chengdu Better City
Super League prediction
Our model says: Shandong Luneng 2–1 Chengdu Better City
The model makes it 49% Shandong Luneng, 24% draw, 27% Chengdu Better City — fair odds of 2.04, 4.17 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Shandong Luneng 2.06, Chengdu Better City 1.40.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,236 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Shandong Luneng's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Chengdu Better City's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- Shandong Luneng are 4th on 44 points from 29 games; Chengdu Better City are top on 52 points from 29 games — Super League.
- Shandong Luneng are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-3 win away to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Chengdu Better City are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Dalian Zhixing.
- Last 6 meetings: Chengdu Better City 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Chengdu Better City 1–0 Shandong Luneng.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shandong Luneng at 49% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City
Shandong Luneng
Super League
- W5-3away to Wuhan Three Towns24 October 2026
- W5-0Hangzhou Greentown17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long11 October 2026
- D1-1Sichuan Jiuniu5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Shanghai Shenhua28 August 2026
Chengdu Better City
Super League
- L0-1Dalian Zhixing24 October 2026
- L0-3away to SHANGHAI SIPG18 October 2026
- L0-1Tianjin Teda10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye6 September 2026
- W2-1Shenyang Urban29 August 2026
What these results say
- Shandong Luneng went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Shandong Luneng conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chengdu Better City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chengdu Better City failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Chengdu Better City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shandong Luneng | 29 | 15 | 5 | 9 | 57 | 47 | +10 | 44 |
| 1 | Chengdu Better City | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 51 | 35 | +16 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shandong Luneng
Chance to finish in the top four · 66% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shandong Luneng vs Chengdu Better City
- 30 May 2026Chengdu Better City 1–0 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 2 August 2025Chengdu Better City 2–1 Shandong LunengSuper League
- 20 June 2025Shandong Luneng 1–3 Chengdu Better CityFA Cup
- 2 April 2025Shandong Luneng 0–3 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
- 24 September 2024Shandong Luneng 1–0 Chengdu Better CityFA Cup
- 17 August 2024Shandong Luneng 3–0 Chengdu Better CitySuper League
Leading scorers: Shandong Luneng and Chengdu Better City
Shandong Luneng
GoalsAssists
- Cryzan199
- V. Qazaishvili1010
Chengdu Better City
GoalsAssists
- Felipe173
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shandong Luneng carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.34 for Chengdu Better City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Shandong Luneng and 1.40 for Chengdu Better City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shandong Luneng rate 0.72 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chengdu Better City rate 0.54 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chengdu Better City, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shandong Luneng a 0% chance of the title and Chengdu Better City 100%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shandong Luneng the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Shandong Luneng against 1.40 for Chengdu Better City. Shandong Luneng's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.51 for Chengdu Better City.
How the model reaches 49% for Shandong Luneng to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Shandong Luneng to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Shandong Luneng's ratings take away 25 points and Chengdu Better City's ratings add 29 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- Shandong Luneng's ratings20%−25
- Chengdu Better City's ratings49%+29
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shandong Luneng at home · Chengdu Better City away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Shandong Luneng 29, Chengdu Better City 29.
Shandong Luneng score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Chengdu Better City have let in 10 there.
Chengdu Better City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (21 goals); Shandong Luneng have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.