SHANGHAI SIPG
vs
Shenyang Urban
Super League prediction
Our model says: SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Shenyang Urban
The model makes it 63% SHANGHAI SIPG, 20% draw, 17% Shenyang Urban — fair odds of 1.59, 5.00 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: SHANGHAI SIPG 2.53, Shenyang Urban 1.08.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
Edge to SHANGHAI SIPG: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. SHANGHAI SIPG's rating is built from 59 Chinese Super League matches and Shenyang Urban's from 29, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 712 matches.
Key facts
- SHANGHAI SIPG are 5th on 42 points from 29 games; Shenyang Urban are 13th on 29 points from 29 games — Super League.
- SHANGHAI SIPG are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Tianjin Teda.
- Shenyang Urban have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Hangzhou Greentown.
More Chinese Super League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SHANGHAI SIPG at 63% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban
SHANGHAI SIPG
Super League
- W3-1away to Tianjin Teda24 October 2026
- W3-0Chengdu Better City18 October 2026
- W4-2away to Hangzhou Greentown9 October 2026
- D0-0Beijing Guoan5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sichuan Jiuniu28 August 2026
Shenyang Urban
Super League
- L2-4Hangzhou Greentown24 October 2026
- W4-0away to Qingdao Jonoon17 October 2026
- D1-1Wuhan Three Towns11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Tianjin Teda12 September 2026
- L0-5away to Yunnan Yukun6 September 2026
What these results say
- SHANGHAI SIPG went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- SHANGHAI SIPG won 4 of these 5 matches.
- SHANGHAI SIPG scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shenyang Urban failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shenyang Urban conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SHANGHAI SIPG | 29 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 36 | +14 | 42 |
| 13 | Shenyang Urban | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
SHANGHAI SIPG
Chance to finish in the top four · 34% today
From our Super League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shenyang Urban
- 29 May 2026Shenyang Urban 3–2 SHANGHAI SIPGSuper League
Leading scorers: SHANGHAI SIPG and Shenyang Urban
SHANGHAI SIPG
GoalsAssists
- Leonardo123
Shenyang Urban
GoalsAssists
- Jeffinho122
- G. Mbenza111
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
SHANGHAI SIPG carry a model rating of 6.46 against 6.16 for Shenyang Urban. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for SHANGHAI SIPG and 1.08 for Shenyang Urban. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SHANGHAI SIPG rate 0.65 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shenyang Urban rate 0.52 and 2.06.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SHANGHAI SIPG the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for SHANGHAI SIPG against 1.08 for Shenyang Urban. SHANGHAI SIPG's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.06 for Shenyang Urban.
How the model reaches 63% for SHANGHAI SIPG to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for SHANGHAI SIPG to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, SHANGHAI SIPG's ratings take away 21 points and Shenyang Urban's ratings add 39 points, which lands on the published 63%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage45%+8
- SHANGHAI SIPG's ratings24%−21
- Shenyang Urban's ratings63%+39
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SHANGHAI SIPG at home · Shenyang Urban away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: SHANGHAI SIPG 29, Shenyang Urban 29.
SHANGHAI SIPG score most often in the 46–60 minute window (14 goals); Shenyang Urban have let in 10 there.
Shenyang Urban score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); SHANGHAI SIPG have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SHANGHAI SIPG
- vs Buriram United24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 53%
- at Pohang Steelers1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 32%
- vs Port FC9 Feb · AFC Champions League Elitewin 65%
Shenyang Urban
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.