27 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Qarabag vs Twente UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Full time1 – 4

Final score: Qarabag 1-4 Twente.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Qarabag, 26% draw, 53% Twente — fair odds of 4.76, 3.85 and 1.89. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Twente at 53% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Qarabag3%Draw93%Twente4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Ramiz Zerrouki
Bruno Langa
23'
Samuel Lobato
58'
⚽Kady Borgesassist: M. Qurbanly
59'
🔁M. Qurbanlyout: C. Makreckis
70'
🔁S. Lobatoout: Pedro Bicalho
70'
70'
🔁S. Orjasaeterout: M. Pjaca
70'
🔁R. Propperout: L. Vennegoor of Hesselink
🔁B. Langaout: Dani Bolt
76'
79'
⚽M. Pjacaassist: W. Weghorst
🔁Kady Borgesout: J. Montiel
86'
Bence Várkonyi
90+4'
Marko Janković
90'
90+5'
🔁R. Nijstadout: A. Adelgaard
90'
⚽M. Brunsassist: M. Pjaca
91'
🔁D. Rotsout: T. van den Belt
Jaly Mouaddib
92'
94'
⚽W. Weghorstassist: D. Weidmann
97'
🔁D. Weidmannout: M. Kjolo
Marko Janković
106'
Marko Janković
106'
106'
Wout Weghorst
109'
🔁W. Weghorstout: F. Thorvaldsen
🔁B. Huseynovout: B. Mustafazada
114'
🔁J. Mouaddibout: H. Cabrayilzada
114'
114'
⚽Y. Taha
116'
Younes Taha

Match stats — Qarabag vs Twente

39%Possession61%
9Shots29
1On target10
0Corners9

Line-ups

Qarabag 4-2-3-1
  • 23M. ZlomislicG
  • 2Matheus SilvaD
  • 55B. HuseynovD
  • 4B. Varkonyi
  • 5B. LangaD
  • 88S. LobatoM
  • 8M. JankovicM
  • 21O. KashchukM
  • 20Kady BorgesM
  • 7J. MouaddibM
  • 22M. QurbanlyF
Substitutes
  • 99M. KochalskiG
  • 1S. MahammadaliyevG
  • 13B. MustafazadaD
  • 18Dani BoltD
  • 25C. MakreckisM
  • 35Pedro BicalhoM
  • 9J. MontielM
  • 32H. CabrayilzadaD
  • 49A. BashirovM
Coach: Qurban Qurbanov
Twente 4-2-3-1
  • 1L. UnnerstallG
  • 28B. van RooijD
  • 38M. BrunsD
  • 3R. PropperD
  • 43R. NijstadD
  • 42D. WeidmannM
  • 6R. ZerroukiM
  • 19Y. TahaM
  • 11D. RotsM
  • 27S. OrjasaeterM
  • 9W. WeghorstF
Substitutes
  • 22R. PasveerG
  • 16J. DrommelG
  • 29A. AdelgaardD
  • 12G. PeixotoD
  • 24K. KurowskiD
  • 39J. MeilinkD
  • 26B. NagelM
  • 4M. KjoloM
  • 20T. van den BeltM
Coach: John van den Brom

Form going into Qarabag vs Twente

Qarabag

  • W1-0away to Twente20 August 2026
  • W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
  • D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
  • D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026

Twente

  • L0-1Qarabag20 August 2026
  • W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
  • W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
  • Qarabag kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Twente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Head-to-head: Qarabag vs Twente

  • 20 August 2026Twente 0–1 QarabagUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: Qarabag and Twente

Qarabag

No leading scorers listed yet.

Twente

  • W. Weghorst4 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.