Twente vs Qarabag UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Twente 0-1 Qarabag.
Before kick-off the model made it 81% Twente, 12% draw, 7% Qarabag — fair odds of 1.23, 8.33 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Twente at 81% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 277 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Twente vs Qarabag
Line-ups
- 1L. UnnerstallG
- 28B. van RooijD
- 3R. PropperD
- 43R. NijstadD
- 29A. AdelgaardD
- 6R. ZerroukiM
- 7M. PjacaM
- 11D. RotsM
- 42D. WeidmannM
- 27S. OrjasaeterM
- 9W. WeghorstF
- 22R. PasveerG
- 16J. DrommelG
- 12G. PeixotoD
- 38M. BrunsD
- 24K. KurowskiD
- 14K. HlynssonM
- 4M. KjoloM
- 20T. van den BeltM
- 10S. LammersF
- 23M. ZlomislicG
- 2Matheus SilvaD
- 55B. HuseynovD
- 4B. Varkonyi
- 5B. LangaD
- 88S. LobatoM
- 8M. JankovicM
- 21O. KashchukM
- 20Kady BorgesM
- 7J. MouaddibM
- 22M. QurbanlyF
- 99M. KochalskiG
- 1S. MahammadaliyevG
- 13B. MustafazadaD
- 18Dani BoltD
- 9J. MontielM
- 32H. CabrayilzadaD
- 49A. BashirovM
Form going into Twente vs Qarabag
Twente
- W3-1PEC Zwolle16 August 2026
- D3-3away to Dunajska Streda13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Heerenveen9 August 2026
- W6-0Dunajska Streda6 August 2026
- D2-2away to Ferencvarosi TC30 July 2026
Qarabag
- W2-0Dynamo Kyiv13 August 2026
- L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv6 August 2026
- D0-0away to CSKA Sofia30 July 2026
- D0-0CSKA Sofia23 July 2026
What these results say
- Twente scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Twente conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Twente had three goals or more.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Qarabag had two goals or fewer.
- Qarabag failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Qarabag failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Leading scorers: Twente and Qarabag
Twente
- W. Weghorst4 goals1 assist
Qarabag
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.