Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Monaco 4-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Monaco, 23% draw, 16% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze
Line-ups
- 1L. HradeckyG
- 2VandersonD
- 72S. SaneD
- 3E. DierD
- 20NazinhoD
- 15L. CamaraM
- 6D. ZakariaM
- 28M. CoulibalyM
- 10A. GolovinM
- 17S. IdumboM
- 29P. BrunnerF
- 16P. KohnG
- 50Y. LienardG
- 4J. TezeD
- 13C. MawissaD
- 5T. KehrerD
- 19P. CabralM
- 46A. SoubeirM
- 49I. ToureM
- 47S. BenzahraM
- 1P. SchulzeG
- 61M. SacekD
- 26R. JanickiD
- 4P. BochniewiczD
- 21O. ZmrzlyD
- 18L. SadilekM
- 66M. DietzM
- 82K. UrbanskiM
- 19Peter FedericoF
- 23S. LisethF
- 33M. KhlanF
- 99T. LoskaG
- 29W. KaniaG
- 20JosemaD
- 64E. JanzaD
- 2P. Warczak
- 14J. KubickiM
- 8P. BernardoM
- 11E. PrekopF
- 9J. AntisteF
Form going into Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze
Monaco
- W1-0away to Le Havre23 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- L2-3Monaco20 August 2026
- W2-1Wisla Krakow16 August 2026
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC13 August 2026
- W3-1away to Radomiak Radom8 August 2026
- L0-1away to Ferencvarosi TC5 August 2026
What these results say
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Gornik Zabrze.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Monaco and Gornik Zabrze in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 22 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ligue 1 · Ekstraklasa
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze
- 20 August 2026Gornik Zabrze 2–3 MonacoUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Monaco and Gornik Zabrze
Monaco
- Paris Josua Brunner4 goals
Gornik Zabrze
- Peter4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.