Pafos
vs
Dinamo Tirana
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 79% Pafos, 14% draw, 7% Dinamo Tirana — fair odds of 1.27, 7.14 and 14.29. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Pafos 2.79, Dinamo Tirana 0.77.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
The two sides
Pafos carry a model rating of 6.47 against 5.98 for Dinamo Tirana. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Pafos L-L-D; Dinamo Tirana L-D-W-L-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.79 goals for Pafos and 0.77 for Dinamo Tirana. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pafos rate 0.63 in attack and 1.35 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Tirana rate 0.41 and 2.34.
That points to 69% for over two and a half goals and 51% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (11%), 3-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pafos the highest probability at 79%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Pafos against 0.77 for Dinamo Tirana. Pafos's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.35 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.34 for Dinamo Tirana.