Raków Częstochowa
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
The model makes it 65% Raków Częstochowa, 17% draw, 18% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.54, 5.88 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 2.93, HNK Hajduk Split 1.58.
Both teams to score: 75%. Over 2.5 goals: 83%, under 2.5: 17%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Raków Częstochowa
- L1-2away to Slask Wroclaw2 August 2026
- L1-2Wisla Plock26 July 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- D2-2Istra 19619 August 2026
- L1-2away to NK Varazdin2 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 7 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Raków Częstochowa
No league goals recorded yet.
HNK Hajduk Split
- R. Pukštas2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Raków Częstochowa carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.47 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Raków Częstochowa L-L; HNK Hajduk Split L-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.93 goals for Raków Częstochowa and 1.58 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Raków Częstochowa rate 0.82 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.84 and 1.89.
That points to 83% for over two and a half goals and 75% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 336 correct results out of 706 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 65%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.58 for HNK Hajduk Split. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.89 for HNK Hajduk Split.