Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 HNK Hajduk Split.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Raków Częstochowa, 21% draw, 18% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 1.64, 4.76 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Raków Częstochowa at 61% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split
Line-ups
- 1K. TrelowskiG
- 7F. TudorD
- 25B. RacovitanD
- 4S. SvarnasD
- 19M. AmeyawM
- 6O. RepkaM
- 23K. StruskiM
- 26E. OtienoM
- 80L. Diaby-FadigaF
- 11M. EmreliF
- 9P. MakuchF
- 71T. KaricG
- 29W. ZolneczkoG
- 2J. NapierajD
- 3A. BrorssonD
- 77D. G. Debohi
- 10V. KocherginM
- 21T. PienkoM
- 17J. JendrykaM
- 20J. C. SilvaM
- 33T. SilicG
- 22M. AcapandieD
- 15D. MaresicD
- 14R. RaciD
- 32S. HrgovicD
- 8N. SigurM
- 21R. PukstasM
- 7A. SanyangM
- 9D. de AlmeidaM
- 23M. SoticekM
- 11M. SegoF
- 44D. StipicaG
- 1I. IvusicG
- 5A. Van HoorenbeeckD
- 17D. MelnjakD
- 36M. SkelinD
- 38L. HodakD
- 20A. del MoralM
- 26A. HuramM
- 19E. BrrutiM
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split
Raków Częstochowa
- D2-2away to HNK Hajduk Split20 August 2026
- L1-2away to Cracovia Krakow16 August 2026
- W1-0away to Hammarby FF13 August 2026
- L2-3Zaglebie Lubin9 August 2026
- D0-0Hammarby FF6 August 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
- W4-0NK Osijek23 August 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 3 |
| 2 | HNK Hajduk Split | HNL | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 16 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Ekstraklasa · HNL
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 20 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 2–2 Raków CzęstochowaUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and HNK Hajduk Split
Raków Częstochowa
- P. Makuch5 goals
- M. Emreli3 goals1 assist
HNK Hajduk Split
- M. Šego4 goals
- M. Livaja3 goals
- M. Šotiček2 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.