HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result
Final score: HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% HNK Rijeka, 29% draw, 35% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.78, 3.45 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Rijeka at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland
Line-ups
- 99A. TodorovicG
- 22A. OrecD
- 45A. MajstorovicD
- 51A. HusicD
- 23J. LasickasD
- 26T. DantasM
- 6B. PavicM
- 19S. VignatoM
- 10T. FrukM
- 4N. JankovicM
- 18D. Adu AdjeiF
- 13I. VekicG
- 1V. KovacG
- 34M. DevetakD
- 3M. ZivkovicD
- 14A. GojakM
- 8I. CubelicM
- 5A. BarcoM
- 21J. PuljicF
- 7Y. KabadayiF
- 1E. OlafssonG
- 5R. KristensenD
- 3M. JensenD
- 6M. ErlicD
- 22M. B. SorensenD
- 11D. OsorioM
- 8P. BillingM
- 19P. BravoM
- 21D. CastilloM
- 29K. WatjenM
- 18S. IheanachoF
- 25N. BakkerG
- 13A. GabrielD
- 15D. Beni
- 34A. Ndiaye
- 27S. JohannesenM
- 14E. ChilufyaF
- 10Cho Gue-SungF
- 20V. ByskovM
- 7FranculinoF
Form going into HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland
HNK Rijeka
- W3-2Istra 196123 August 2026
FC Midtjylland
- W1-0Randers FC23 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka20 August 2026
- D1-1away to Lyngby16 August 2026
- W3-2Bohemians13 August 2026
- W2-0away to Bohemians6 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Midtjylland went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Midtjylland won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNK Rijeka and FC Midtjylland in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | HNL | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 19 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: HNL · Superliga
Head-to-head: HNK Rijeka vs FC Midtjylland
- 20 August 2026FC Midtjylland 2–0 HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League
Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.
Leading scorers: HNK Rijeka and FC Midtjylland
HNK Rijeka
- D. Adu-Adjei4 goals3 assists
- T. Fruk2 goals3 assists
- Tiago Dantas2 goals2 assists
FC Midtjylland
- F. Etim4 goals2 assists
- S. Iheanacho3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.