27 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

FC St. Gallen vs FC Nordsjaelland UEFA Europa Conference League prediction & result

Kybunpark, St. Gallen
Full time2 – 3

Final score: FC St. Gallen 2-3 FC Nordsjaelland.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% FC St. Gallen, 23% draw, 35% FC Nordsjaelland — fair odds of 2.38, 4.35 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC St. Gallen at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC St. Gallen0%Draw4%FC Nordsjaelland96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

14'
⚽J. Lahteenmakiassist: L. Sadio
•Lukas Görtler
17'
⚽L. Gortler (pen)
21'
Mihailo Stevanović
22'
24'
⚽P. Amoakoassist: N. Rojkjaer
⚽A. Baldeassist: C. Okoroji
28'
Mihailo Stevanović
39'
Mihailo Stevanović
39'
🔁A. Hunzikerout: L. Frokaj
43'
45+4'
Ibrahim Adel
46'
🔁I. Adelout: A. Lind
Lukas Görtler
48'
66'
Juho Lähteenmäki
66'
🔁N. Rojkjaerout: M. Brink
66'
🔁P. Amoakoout: H. Rasmussen
Hugo Vandermersch
72'
74'
Peter Ankersen
Jozo Stanić
76'
79'
🔁L. Sadioout: V. Berthelsen
Lawrence Ati Zigi
82'
82'
⚽H. Rasmussenassist: A. Lind
🔁J. Ruizout: C. Kleine-Bekel
83'
🔁H. Vandermerschout: E. Owusu
83'
🔁A. Baldeout: D. Besio
83'
🔁C. Witzigout: N. Scherrer
86'
90+4'
🔁R. Norheimout: M. Walker

Match stats — FC St. Gallen vs FC Nordsjaelland

44%Possession56%
22Shots16
7On target5
2Corners5

Line-ups

FC St. Gallen 3-4-3
  • 1L. Ati ZigiG
  • 74J. RuizD
  • 4J. StanicD
  • 36C. OkorojiD
  • 28H. VandermerschM
  • 10L. DaschnerM
  • 16L. GortlerM
  • 64M. StevanovicM
  • 14A. BaldeF
  • 9A. HunzikerF
  • 7C. WitzigF
Substitutes
  • 25L. WatkowiakG
  • 3C. Kleine-BekelD
  • 68M. Heydari
  • 23B. FazlijiM
  • 20L. Frokaj
  • 63C. KonietzkeM
  • 47E. OwusuM
  • 70N. ScherrerF
  • 21M. EfekeleF
Coach: Enrico Maassen
FC Nordsjaelland 3-4-3
  • 13A. HansenG
  • 2P. AnkersenD
  • 3T. SalquistD
  • 15S. AcquahD
  • 25J. LahteenmakiM
  • 18J. JanssenM
  • 8N. RojkjaerM
  • 23R. NorheimM
  • 37L. SadioF
  • 10P. AmoakoF
  • 14I. AdelF
Substitutes
  • 31A. SondenbroeG
  • 22C. ErikssonG
  • 32V. GustafsenD
  • 42M. TukaD
  • 4N. MarkmannD
  • 28M. WalkerD
  • 6M. BrinkM
  • 47M. HeydeM
  • 11A. LindF
Coach: Jens Olsen

Form going into FC St. Gallen vs FC Nordsjaelland

FC St. Gallen

  • L0-1away to FC Nordsjaelland20 August 2026
  • W5-1Sheriff Tiraspol13 August 2026
  • D2-2FC Luzern9 August 2026
  • W3-1away to Sheriff Tiraspol6 August 2026
  • W3-2away to FC Vaduz2 August 2026

FC Nordsjaelland

  • W3-0away to Sonderjyske23 August 2026
  • W1-0FC St. Gallen20 August 2026
  • W1-0Silkeborg16 August 2026
  • W5-0Valur Reykjavik13 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Valur Reykjavik6 August 2026

What these results say

  • FC St. Gallen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC St. Gallen scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for FC St. Gallen had three goals or more.
  • FC Nordsjaelland won every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Nordsjaelland scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Nordsjaelland kept a clean sheet in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

FC St. Gallen and FC Nordsjaelland in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5FC St. GallenSuper League94141619-313
4FC NordsjaellandSuperliga95221410+417

Each side's position in its own domestic league today, not on the day of this match — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super League · Superliga

Head-to-head: FC St. Gallen vs FC Nordsjaelland

  • 20 August 2026FC Nordsjaelland 1–0 FC St. GallenUEFA Europa Conference League

Previous meetings on this site's own match record, which begins in July 2026 — any earlier meeting between these clubs is not listed here.

Leading scorers: FC St. Gallen and FC Nordsjaelland

FC St. Gallen

  • A. Balde3 goals1 assist

FC Nordsjaelland

  • A. Lind3 goals1 assist
  • H. Boe Rasmussen3 goals1 assist

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.