Stal Rzeszów
vs
Puszcza Niepołomice
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Stal Rzeszów 2–1 Puszcza Niepołomice
The model makes it 40% Stal Rzeszów, 27% draw, 33% Puszcza Niepołomice — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Stal Rzeszów 1.55, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.37.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 1,986 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Stal Rzeszów's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Puszcza Niepołomice's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Stal Rzeszów are 9th on 17 points from 11 games; Puszcza Niepołomice are bottom on 9 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Stal Rzeszów have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-3 win away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Pogoń Siedlce.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 February 2026, ended Puszcza Niepołomice 4–1 Stal Rzeszów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stal Rzeszów at 40% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 1,987 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice
Stal Rzeszów
- W4-3away to Pogoń Siedlce18 October 2026
- L1-2Lechia Gdansk12 October 2026
- W3-2away to Miedz Legnica19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Odra Opole13 September 2026
- W2-1Polonia Warszawa5 September 2026
Puszcza Niepołomice
- W3-1away to Pogoń Siedlce15 October 2026
- L0-1Polonia Bytom11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Warta Poznań18 September 2026
- L1-2ŁKS Łódź11 September 2026
- W2-0Podbeskidzie29 August 2026
What these results say
- Stal Rzeszów scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stal Rzeszów conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Puszcza Niepołomice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stal Rzeszów | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
| 18 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza Niepołomice
- 22 February 2026Puszcza Niepołomice 4–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
- 16 August 2025Stal Rzeszów 2–2 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 31 October 2023Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceCup
- 11 February 2023Stal Rzeszów 1–0 Puszcza NiepołomiceI Liga
- 23 July 2022Puszcza Niepołomice 2–1 Stal RzeszówI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stal Rzeszów carry a model rating of 6.18 against 6.26 for Puszcza Niepołomice. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.55 goals for Stal Rzeszów and 1.37 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stal Rzeszów rate 0.57 in attack and 2.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Puszcza Niepołomice rate 0.51 and 1.67.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stal Rzeszów a 0.2% chance of the title and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stal Rzeszów the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Stal Rzeszów against 1.37 for Puszcza Niepołomice. Stal Rzeszów's attack/defence rating is 0.57/2.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.67 for Puszcza Niepołomice.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stal Rzeszów at home · Puszcza Niepołomice away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Stal Rzeszów 11, Puszcza Niepołomice 10.
Stal Rzeszów score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Puszcza Niepołomice have let in 1 there.
Puszcza Niepołomice score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Stal Rzeszów have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stal Rzeszów
- at ŁKS Łódź8 Nov · I Ligawin 21%
- vs Polonia Bytom21 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- at Nieciecza28 Nov · I Ligawin 16%
- vs Warta Poznań5 Dec · I Ligawin 35%
Puszcza Niepołomice
- vs Miedz Legnica6 Nov · I Ligawin 38%
- at Chrobry Głogów21 Nov · I Ligawin 29%
- vs Stal Mielec28 Nov · I Ligawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.