Pogoń Siedlce
vs
Ruch Chorzów
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Pogoń Siedlce 0–1 Ruch Chorzów
The model makes it 29% Pogoń Siedlce, 30% draw, 41% Ruch Chorzów — fair odds of 3.45, 3.33 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Pogoń Siedlce 1.01, Ruch Chorzów 1.29.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,008 settled matches.
Edge to Ruch Chorzów: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Pogoń Siedlce's rating is built from 45 Polish I Liga matches and Ruch Chorzów's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Pogoń Siedlce are 12th on 12 points from 11 games; Ruch Chorzów are 6th on 18 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Pogoń Siedlce are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Stal Rzeszów.
- Ruch Chorzów are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Odra Opole.
- Last 6 meetings: Pogoń Siedlce 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Ruch Chorzów.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ruch Chorzów at 41% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 2,011 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
Pogoń Siedlce
- L3-4Stal Rzeszów18 October 2026
- L1-3Puszcza Niepołomice15 October 2026
- L0-1away to Podbeskidzie9 October 2026
- W2-1Arka Gdynia20 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chrobry Głogów12 September 2026
Ruch Chorzów
- W3-0Odra Opole16 October 2026
- W2-0away to ŁKS Łódź11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Polonia Bytom18 September 2026
- D3-3Podbeskidzie12 September 2026
- W3-1Unia Skierniewice7 September 2026
What these results say
- Pogoń Siedlce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Pogoń Siedlce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ruch Chorzów went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Ruch Chorzów scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pogoń Siedlce | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzów | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Pogoń Siedlce vs Ruch Chorzów
- 13 February 2026Pogoń Siedlce 2–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 8 August 2025Ruch Chorzów 0–2 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 17 February 2025Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Ruch ChorzówI Liga
- 2 August 2024Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Pogoń SiedlceI Liga
- 1 December 2021Pogoń Siedlce 1–1 Ruch ChorzówII Liga - East
- 30 July 2021Ruch Chorzów 1–1 Pogoń SiedlceII Liga - East
The two sides
Pogoń Siedlce carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.39 for Ruch Chorzów. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.01 goals for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.29 for Ruch Chorzów. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Pogoń Siedlce rate 0.42 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ruch Chorzów rate 0.59 and 1.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogoń Siedlce a 0.1% chance of the title and Ruch Chorzów 5.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ruch Chorzów the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pogoń Siedlce against 1.29 for Ruch Chorzów. Pogoń Siedlce's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.48 for Ruch Chorzów.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Pogoń Siedlce at home · Ruch Chorzów away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Pogoń Siedlce 11, Ruch Chorzów 11.
Ruch Chorzów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Pogoń Siedlce have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Pogoń Siedlce
- vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki8 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- at Unia Skierniewice21 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- at Warta Poznań28 Nov · I Ligawin 19%
- vs Miedz Legnica5 Dec · I Ligawin 31%
Ruch Chorzów
- at Stal Mielec8 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Warta Poznań21 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
- at Arka Gdynia28 Nov · I Ligawin 26%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice5 Dec · I Ligawin 51%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.