Chrobry Głogów
vs
Arka Gdynia
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Chrobry Głogów 0–1 Arka Gdynia
The model makes it 33% Chrobry Głogów, 29% draw, 38% Arka Gdynia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Chrobry Głogów 1.21, Arka Gdynia 1.34.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
Edge to Arka Gdynia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 20 October 2026. Chrobry Głogów's rating is built from 47 Polish I Liga matches and Arka Gdynia's from 34 Ekstraklasa matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Chrobry Głogów are 11th on 12 points from 11 games; Arka Gdynia are 15th on 11 points from 11 games — I Liga.
- Chrobry Głogów have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Polonia Bytom.
- Arka Gdynia have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Lechia Gdansk.
- Last 6 meetings: Arka Gdynia 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 April 2025, ended Chrobry Głogów 2–2 Arka Gdynia.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Arka Gdynia at 38% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
Chrobry Głogów
- L2-3away to Polonia Bytom17 October 2026
- L0-4Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Polonia Warszawa19 September 2026
- D0-0Pogoń Siedlce12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Miedz Legnica5 September 2026
Arka Gdynia
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk18 October 2026
- L1-2Polonia Warszawa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pogoń Siedlce20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Warta Poznań12 September 2026
- D1-1ŁKS Łódź6 September 2026
What these results say
- Chrobry Głogów did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Chrobry Głogów conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Arka Gdynia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Chrobry Głogów | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Chrobry Głogów vs Arka Gdynia
- 12 April 2025Chrobry Głogów 2–2 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 29 September 2024Arka Gdynia 2–0 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 5 April 2024Arka Gdynia 2–1 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
- 23 September 2023Chrobry Głogów 1–0 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 21 April 2023Chrobry Głogów 0–3 Arka GdyniaI Liga
- 16 September 2022Arka Gdynia 3–4 Chrobry GłogówI Liga
The two sides
Chrobry Głogów carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.44 for Arka Gdynia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.21 goals for Chrobry Głogów and 1.34 for Arka Gdynia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Chrobry Głogów rate 0.50 in attack and 1.69 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arka Gdynia rate 0.66 and 1.49.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Chrobry Głogów, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Chrobry Głogów a 0.2% chance of the title and Arka Gdynia 2.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Arka Gdynia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chrobry Głogów against 1.34 for Arka Gdynia. Chrobry Głogów's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.69 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.49 for Arka Gdynia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Chrobry Głogów at home · Arka Gdynia away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Chrobry Głogów 11, Arka Gdynia 11.
Chrobry Głogów score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Arka Gdynia have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Chrobry Głogów
- at Nieciecza7 Nov · I Ligawin 19%
- vs Puszcza Niepołomice21 Nov · I Ligawin 43%
- vs Unia Skierniewice28 Nov · I Ligawin 48%
- at Lechia Gdansk5 Dec · I Ligawin 17%
Arka Gdynia
- vs Podbeskidzie7 Nov · I Ligawin 55%
- at Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki21 Nov · I Ligawin 34%
- vs Ruch Chorzów28 Nov · I Ligawin 46%
- at Stal Mielec5 Dec · I Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.