Polonia Warszawa
vs
Miedz Legnica
I Liga prediction
Our model says: Polonia Warszawa 1–0 Miedz Legnica
The model makes it 44% Polonia Warszawa, 28% draw, 28% Miedz Legnica — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Polonia Warszawa 1.57, Miedz Legnica 1.14.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Polonia Warszawa are 2nd on 17 points from 10 games; Miedz Legnica are 8th on 14 points from 10 games — I Liga.
- Polonia Warszawa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Arka Gdynia.
- Miedz Legnica are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Odra Opole.
- Last 6 meetings: Miedz Legnica 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz Legnica.
More Polish I Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Polonia Warszawa at 44% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
Polonia Warszawa
- W2-1away to Arka Gdynia10 October 2026
- W2-0Chrobry Głogów19 September 2026
- D2-2Polonia Bytom11 September 2026
- L1-2away to Stal Rzeszów5 September 2026
- L2-4Lechia Gdansk29 August 2026
Miedz Legnica
- L0-1away to Odra Opole11 October 2026
- L2-3Stal Rzeszów19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Lechia Gdansk13 September 2026
- D1-1Chrobry Głogów5 September 2026
- W2-1Warta Poznań30 August 2026
What these results say
- Polonia Warszawa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Polonia Warszawa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Polonia Warszawa had three goals or more.
- Miedz Legnica conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Miedz Legnica scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
I Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Polonia Warszawa
Chance to finish in the top four · 35% today
Miedz Legnica
Chance to finish in the top four · 17% today
From our I Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Polonia Warszawa vs Miedz Legnica
- 21 March 2026Polonia Warszawa 1–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 14 September 2025Miedz Legnica 1–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 2 March 2025Miedz Legnica 2–3 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 17 August 2024Polonia Warszawa 0–1 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
- 23 February 2024Miedz Legnica 2–1 Polonia WarszawaI Liga
- 14 August 2023Polonia Warszawa 3–4 Miedz LegnicaI Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Polonia Warszawa carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.31 for Miedz Legnica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Polonia Warszawa and 1.14 for Miedz Legnica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Polonia Warszawa rate 0.61 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Miedz Legnica rate 0.53 and 1.58.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Polonia Warszawa a 7.5% chance of the title and Miedz Legnica 2.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Polonia Warszawa the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Polonia Warszawa against 1.14 for Miedz Legnica. Polonia Warszawa's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.58 for Miedz Legnica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Polonia Warszawa at home · Miedz Legnica away
League matches only, I Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All I Liga matches this season: Polonia Warszawa 10, Miedz Legnica 10.
Polonia Warszawa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Miedz Legnica have let in 2 there.
Miedz Legnica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Polonia Warszawa have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Polonia Warszawa
- at ŁKS Łódź2 Nov · I Ligawin 28%
- at Warta Poznań7 Nov · I Ligawin 27%
- vs Stal Mielec21 Nov · I Ligawin 56%
- at Odra Opole28 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
Miedz Legnica
- vs Nieciecza31 Oct · I Ligawin 36%
- at Puszcza Niepołomice6 Nov · I Ligawin 32%
- vs ŁKS Łódź21 Nov · I Ligawin 41%
- vs Polonia Bytom28 Nov · I Ligawin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.