24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC

Liechtenstein vs Lithuania UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz
Referee: Ante Culina
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Liechtenstein 0-2 Lithuania.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Liechtenstein, 33% draw, 38% Lithuania — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Lithuania at 38% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 3,919 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Liechtenstein0%Draw1%Lithuania99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
Justas Lasickas
F. Saglam
40'
45'
🔁Modestas Vorobjovasout: Motiejus Burba
53'
⚽Lukas Michelbrinkassist: A. Kučys
🔁F. Saglamout: Alessandro Lo Russo
61'
61'
🔁Eligijus Jankauskasout: Artur Dolžnikov
61'
🔁Pijus Sirvysout: Adrian Lickūnas
66'
⚽Artur Dolžnikovassist: Gvidas Gineitis
73'
🔁A. Kučysout: Manfredas Ruzgis
🔁Fabio Luque Notaroout: kenny kindle
73'
🔁Aron Seleout: S. Schlegel
73'
84'
🔁Justas Lasickasout: zygimantas baltrunas
🔁Marcel Büchelout: Andrin·Netzer
88'
🔁Emanuel Zündout: Bruno Poitner
88'

Match stats — Liechtenstein vs Lithuania

27%Possession73%
4Shots16
0On target7
0Corners8

Line-ups

Liechtenstein 5-3-2
  • 1B. BüchelG
  • 18N. HaslerD
  • 5J. WeissenhoferD
  • 4L. TraberD
  • 3M. GoppelD
  • 19E. ZündD
  • 8A. SeleM
  • 10M. BuchelM
  • 20A. HaslerM
  • 7Fabio Luque NotaroF
  • 9F. SaglamF
Substitutes
  • 2N. BeckD
  • 12G. FoserG
  • 23J. HoferD
  • 13Kenny KindleF
  • 17L. KranzM
  • 21L. Lo RussoG
  • 14L. MeierM
  • 15A. NetzerD
  • 6S. SchlegelF
Coach: K. Fünfstück
Lithuania 4-3-3
  • 23D. BartkusG
  • 17P. ŠirvysD
  • 5K. KažukolovasD
  • 3E. UtkusD
  • 2A. TutyškinasD
  • 15G. GineitisM
  • 6M. VorobjovasM
  • 16Lukas MichelbrinkM
  • 11E. JankauskasF
  • 10A. KučysF
  • 13J. LasickasF
Substitutes
  • 9M. RuzgisF
  • 20D. MalžinskasD
  • 14V. SlivkaM
  • 1E. GertmonasG
  • 7A. DolžnikovM
  • 19I. VenckusF
  • 12T. ŠvedkauskasG
  • 22M. BurbaF
  • 18V. ArmalasD
Coach: E. Jankauskas

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Liechtenstein201102-21
2Lithuania311132+14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

The result against the call

Lithuania won 2–0 at Liechtenstein. The model had made a win for Lithuania its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Lukas Michelbrink 53' for Lithuania, Artur Dolžnikov 66' for Lithuania.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.