Port Vale
vs
Rochdale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Port Vale 1–0 Rochdale
The model makes it 45% Port Vale, 28% draw, 27% Rochdale — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Port Vale 1.49, Rochdale 1.05.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Port Vale are 21st on 11 points from 9 games; Rochdale are 13th on 14 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Port Vale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Chesterfield.
- Rochdale have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Crewe.
- Last 6 meetings: Port Vale 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 23 July 2022, ended Rochdale 2–3 Port Vale.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Port Vale vs Rochdale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Port Vale at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Port Vale vs Rochdale
Port Vale
- W1-0Chesterfield17 October 2026
- W1-0Grimsby10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026
- W1-0Exeter City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City5 September 2026
Rochdale
- L2-3away to Crewe17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Tranmere10 October 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
- Rochdale scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Port Vale | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Rochdale | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Port Vale
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
Rochdale
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 13% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Port Vale vs Rochdale
- 23 July 2022Rochdale 2–3 Port ValeFriendlies Clubs
- 22 February 2022Rochdale 1–1 Port ValeLeague Two
- 5 October 2021Port Vale 1–0 RochdaleEFL Trophy
- 4 September 2021Port Vale 2–3 RochdaleLeague Two
- 29 August 2020Port Vale 2–1 RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
- 4 April 2017Rochdale 3–0 Port ValeLeague One
Leading scorers: Port Vale and Rochdale
Port Vale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Rochdale
GoalsAssists
- D. Brown32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Port Vale carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.08 for Rochdale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Port Vale and 1.05 for Rochdale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Port Vale rate 0.46 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rochdale rate 0.48 and 2.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Rochdale, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Port Vale a 1.7% chance of the title and Rochdale 0.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Port Vale against 1.05 for Rochdale. Port Vale's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.23 for Rochdale.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Port Vale at home · Rochdale away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Port Vale 9, Rochdale 10.
Port Vale score most often in the 31–45 minute window (2 goals); Rochdale have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Port Vale
- vs Accrington Stanley14 Nov · League Twowin 44%
Rochdale
- vs York14 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- at Northampton21 Nov · League Twowin 30%
- vs Barnet28 Nov · League Twowin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.