Oldham
vs
Crawley Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Oldham 1–0 Crawley Town
The model makes it 53% Oldham, 25% draw, 22% Crawley Town — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Oldham 1.88, Crawley Town 1.01.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Oldham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Oldham are 19th on 11 points from 10 games; Crawley Town are bottom on 5 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Oldham have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Cheltenham.
- Crawley Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Salford City.
- Last 6 meetings: Oldham 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 28 February 2026, ended Oldham 2–0 Crawley Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Oldham vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oldham at 53% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Oldham vs Crawley Town
Oldham
- W4-1Cheltenham17 October 2026
- D0-0Accrington Stanley10 October 2026
- L1-4Salford City26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Rochdale19 September 2026
- L1-2Chesterfield12 September 2026
Crawley Town
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
- L1-3Cheltenham12 September 2026
- L2-3away to Accrington Stanley5 September 2026
What these results say
- Oldham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oldham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Oldham | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Oldham
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
Crawley Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 61% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Oldham vs Crawley Town
- 28 February 2026Oldham 2–0 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 13 December 2025Crawley Town 2–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 7 May 2022Oldham 3–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
- 1 March 2022Crawley Town 2–2 OldhamLeague Two
- 5 April 2021Crawley Town 1–4 OldhamLeague Two
- 26 September 2020Oldham 2–3 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Oldham and Crawley Town
Oldham
GoalsAssists
- C. Kavanagh43
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oldham carry a model rating of 6.16 against 5.95 for Crawley Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.88 goals for Oldham and 1.01 for Crawley Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oldham rate 0.52 in attack and 2.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crawley Town rate 0.41 and 2.48.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oldham a 1.3% chance of the title and Crawley Town 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oldham the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Oldham against 1.01 for Crawley Town. Oldham's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/2.48 for Crawley Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oldham at home · Crawley Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Oldham 10, Crawley Town 9.
Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Oldham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Oldham
- at Shrewsbury14 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Exeter City21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Crawley Town
- at Rotherham14 Nov · League Twowin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.