Salford City
vs
Exeter City
League Two prediction
Our model says: Salford City 1–0 Exeter City
The model makes it 42% Salford City, 29% draw, 29% Exeter City — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Salford City 1.45, Exeter City 1.11.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Salford City are top on 22 points from 11 games; Exeter City are 16th on 13 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Salford City are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Crawley Town.
- Exeter City are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Colchester.
- Last 5 meetings: Exeter City 3 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 March 2022, ended Exeter City 0–0 Salford City.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Salford City vs Exeter City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Salford City at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Salford City vs Exeter City
Salford City
- W2-1Crawley Town17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cheltenham10 October 2026
- W1-0Fleetwood Town3 October 2026
- W4-1away to Oldham26 September 2026
- W1-0Swindon Town19 September 2026
Exeter City
- D0-0away to Colchester17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Shrewsbury10 October 2026
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
What these results say
- Salford City won every one of these 5 matches.
- Salford City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
- Exeter City kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 16 | Exeter City | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Salford City
Chance to finish in the top four · 50% today
Exeter City
Chance to finish in the top four · 19% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Salford City vs Exeter City
- 12 March 2022Exeter City 0–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 30 October 2021Salford City 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 27 March 2021Exeter City 1–0 Salford CityLeague Two
- 12 September 2020Salford City 2–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 14 December 2019Salford City 0–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
Leading scorers: Salford City and Exeter City
Salford City
GoalsAssists
- J. Powell32
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Salford City carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.21 for Exeter City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Salford City and 1.11 for Exeter City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Salford City rate 0.53 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Exeter City rate 0.52 and 1.88.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Salford City a 12.2% chance of the title and Exeter City 1.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Salford City the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Salford City against 1.11 for Exeter City. Salford City's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/1.88 for Exeter City.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Salford City at home · Exeter City away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Salford City 10, Exeter City 11.
Salford City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Exeter City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Salford City
- vs Northampton14 Nov · League Twowin 47%
- at Accrington Stanley21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Gillingham28 Nov · League Twowin 51%
Exeter City
- vs Cheltenham14 Nov · League Twowin 52%
- at Oldham21 Nov · League Twowin 33%
- vs Crawley Town28 Nov · League Twowin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.