Rochdale
vs
Grimsby
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rochdale 0–1 Grimsby
The model makes it 32% Rochdale, 29% draw, 39% Grimsby — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Rochdale 1.22, Grimsby 1.45.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Rochdale are 11th on 13 points from 9 games; Grimsby are 9th on 13 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Rochdale are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Swindon Town.
- Grimsby have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Shrewsbury.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 19 July 2025, ended Rochdale 2–0 Grimsby.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Rochdale vs Grimsby
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Grimsby at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Rochdale vs Grimsby
Rochdale
- W1-0Swindon Town3 October 2026
- W2-1away to Fleetwood Town26 September 2026
- W2-0Oldham19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Walsall12 September 2026
- L1-4Gillingham5 September 2026
Grimsby
- L1-2Shrewsbury3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Newport County26 September 2026
- W2-0Crawley Town19 September 2026
- W2-0Bristol Rovers12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Cheltenham5 September 2026
What these results say
- Rochdale scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Grimsby scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rochdale vs Grimsby
- 19 July 2025Rochdale 2–0 GrimsbyFriendlies Clubs
- 11 March 2023Grimsby 1–0 RochdaleLeague Two
- 13 August 2022Rochdale 0–1 GrimsbyLeague Two
- 14 August 2018Grimsby 0–2 RochdaleLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Rochdale and Grimsby
Rochdale
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Grimsby
- K. Green3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Rochdale carry a model rating of 6.08 against 6.26 for Grimsby. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Rochdale and 1.45 for Grimsby. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Rochdale rate 0.44 in attack and 2.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Grimsby rate 0.58 and 1.90.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Rochdale a 0.6% chance of the title and Grimsby 7.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Grimsby the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rochdale against 1.45 for Grimsby. Rochdale's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.9 for Grimsby.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Rochdale at home · Grimsby away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Rochdale 9, Grimsby 9.
Grimsby score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Rochdale have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Rochdale
- vs Accrington Stanley24 Oct · League Twowin 39%
- at Port Vale31 Oct · League Twowin 28%
- vs York14 Nov · League Twowin 31%
Grimsby
- at Gillingham24 Oct · League Twowin 40%
- vs York31 Oct · League Twowin 39%
- at Swindon Town14 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.