Exeter City
vs
Crewe
League Two prediction
Our model says: Exeter City 1–0 Crewe
The model makes it 39% Exeter City, 30% draw, 31% Crewe — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Exeter City 1.38, Crewe 1.11.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Exeter City are 20th on 9 points from 9 games; Crewe are 3rd on 15 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Exeter City have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rotherham.
- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 3-1 win at home to Bristol Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: Exeter City 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 March 2020, ended Exeter City 1–1 Crewe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Exeter City vs Crewe
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Exeter City at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Exeter City vs Crewe
Exeter City
- W1-0Rotherham3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Bristol Rovers26 September 2026
- D0-0Tranmere19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Port Vale12 September 2026
- D0-0Walsall5 September 2026
Crewe
- W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026
- D1-1Shrewsbury19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester12 September 2026
- D1-1York5 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Exeter City had two goals or fewer.
- Exeter City failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Exeter City failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Crewe went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Crewe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crewe conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Exeter City vs Crewe
- 3 March 2020Exeter City 1–1 CreweLeague Two
- 5 October 2019Crewe 1–1 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 23 February 2019Crewe 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 15 December 2018Exeter City 1–0 CreweLeague Two
- 20 February 2018Crewe 1–2 Exeter CityLeague Two
- 16 September 2017Exeter City 3–0 CreweLeague Two
Leading scorers: Exeter City and Crewe
Exeter City
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Crewe
- J. March3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Exeter City carry a model rating of 6.2 against 6.19 for Crewe. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.38 goals for Exeter City and 1.11 for Crewe. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Exeter City rate 0.51 in attack and 1.88 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Crewe rate 0.49 and 1.85.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Crewe, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Exeter City a 2% chance of the title and Crewe 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Exeter City the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Exeter City against 1.11 for Crewe. Exeter City's attack/defence rating is 0.51/1.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.85 for Crewe.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Exeter City at home · Crewe away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Exeter City 9, Crewe 9.
Exeter City score most often in the 0–15 minute window (2 goals); Crewe have let in 0 there.
Crewe score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Exeter City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Exeter City
- vs Fleetwood Town24 Oct · League Twowin 41%
- at Salford City31 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- vs Cheltenham14 Nov · League Twowin 44%
Crewe
- at Chesterfield24 Oct · League Twowin 30%
- vs Barnet31 Oct · League Twowin 36%
- vs Newport County14 Nov · League Twowin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.