Cheltenham
vs
Fleetwood Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Cheltenham 2–1 Fleetwood Town
The model makes it 39% Cheltenham, 29% draw, 32% Fleetwood Town — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Cheltenham 1.57, Fleetwood Town 1.31.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Cheltenham are 4th on 15 points from 9 games; Fleetwood Town are 18th on 10 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Cheltenham have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Accrington Stanley.
- Fleetwood Town are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Salford City.
- Last 6 meetings: Fleetwood Town 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 March 2026, ended Fleetwood Town 2–2 Cheltenham.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cheltenham at 39% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
- L0-2away to Accrington Stanley3 October 2026
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
- D2-2Grimsby5 September 2026
Fleetwood Town
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Newport County12 September 2026
- W2-0Shrewsbury5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cheltenham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cheltenham scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cheltenham.
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cheltenham vs Fleetwood Town
- 10 March 2026Fleetwood Town 2–2 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 4 October 2025Cheltenham 2–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 8 February 2025Fleetwood Town 2–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 28 September 2024Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 29 March 2024Fleetwood Town 1–2 CheltenhamLeague One
- 3 October 2023Cheltenham 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Leading scorers: Cheltenham and Fleetwood Town
Cheltenham
- C. McCann7 goals
- A. Weimann4 goals2 assists
- J. Evans3 goals2 assists
Fleetwood Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cheltenham carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.12 for Fleetwood Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Cheltenham and 1.31 for Fleetwood Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cheltenham rate 0.56 in attack and 2.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fleetwood Town rate 0.44 and 1.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cheltenham a 2.3% chance of the title and Fleetwood Town 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cheltenham the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Cheltenham against 1.31 for Fleetwood Town. Cheltenham's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.44/1.92 for Fleetwood Town.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cheltenham at home · Fleetwood Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Cheltenham 9, Fleetwood Town 9.
Cheltenham score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 3 there.
Fleetwood Town score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Cheltenham have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cheltenham
- vs Newport County24 Oct · League Twowin 43%
- at Tranmere31 Oct · League Twowin 37%
- at Exeter City14 Nov · League Twowin 29%
Fleetwood Town
- at Exeter City24 Oct · League Twowin 29%
- vs Bristol Rovers31 Oct · League Twowin 38%
- vs Tranmere14 Nov · League Twowin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.