Gillingham
vs
Port Vale
League Two prediction
Our model says: Gillingham 0–1 Port Vale
The model makes it 34% Gillingham, 30% draw, 36% Port Vale — fair odds of 2.94, 3.33 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Gillingham 1.19, Port Vale 1.26.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Gillingham and Port Vale are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Gillingham are 10th on 13 points from 9 games; Port Vale are 23rd on 5 points from 7 games — League Two.
- Gillingham have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Newport County.
- Port Vale have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Walsall.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2025, ended Port Vale 0–1 Gillingham.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gillingham vs Port Vale
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Port Vale at 36% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 2,416 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gillingham vs Port Vale
Gillingham
- D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
- W2-0Tranmere12 September 2026
- W4-1away to Rochdale5 September 2026
Port Vale
- L0-2away to Walsall19 September 2026
- W1-0Exeter City12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Swindon Town1 September 2026
- D0-0Crewe29 August 2026
What these results say
- Port Vale failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Port Vale had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gillingham vs Port Vale
- 3 May 2025Port Vale 0–1 GillinghamLeague Two
- 9 November 2024Gillingham 1–0 Port ValeLeague Two
- 11 February 2017Gillingham 1–1 Port ValeLeague One
- 17 September 2016Port Vale 2–1 GillinghamLeague One
- 16 April 2016Gillingham 0–2 Port ValeLeague One
- 15 August 2015Port Vale 1–1 GillinghamLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gillingham carry a model rating of 6.04 against 6.17 for Port Vale. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Gillingham and 1.26 for Port Vale. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gillingham rate 0.45 in attack and 2.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Port Vale rate 0.46 and 1.81.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gillingham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gillingham a 0.2% chance of the title and Port Vale 0.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Port Vale the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gillingham against 1.26 for Port Vale. Gillingham's attack/defence rating is 0.45/2.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.81 for Port Vale.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gillingham at home · Port Vale away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Gillingham 9, Port Vale 7.
Gillingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Port Vale have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Gillingham
- vs Grimsby24 Oct · League Twowin 31%
- at Shrewsbury31 Oct · League Twowin 33%
- at Colchester14 Nov · League Twowin 28%
Port Vale
- at York24 Oct · League Twowin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.