Swindon Town
vs
Rotherham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Swindon Town 1–0 Rotherham
The model makes it 37% Swindon Town, 29% draw, 34% Rotherham — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Swindon Town 1.30, Rotherham 1.24.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Swindon Town and Rotherham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Swindon Town are 18th on 12 points from 11 games; Rotherham are 23rd on 10 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Swindon Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Walsall.
- Rotherham are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Fleetwood Town.
- Last 5 meetings: Swindon Town 4 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 November 2025, ended Rotherham 1–2 Swindon Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swindon Town vs Rotherham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swindon Town at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Swindon Town vs Rotherham
Swindon Town
- D1-1Walsall17 October 2026
- L0-1Crewe10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rochdale3 October 2026
- D1-1Accrington Stanley26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City19 September 2026
Rotherham
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Exeter City3 October 2026
- D1-1Crewe26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Northampton19 September 2026
What these results say
- Swindon Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Swindon Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Swindon Town had two goals or fewer.
- Rotherham failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rotherham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Swindon Town | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| 23 | Rotherham | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Swindon Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
Rotherham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Swindon Town vs Rotherham
- 1 November 2025Rotherham 1–2 Swindon TownFA Cup
- 3 May 2014Swindon Town 1–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 12 October 2013Rotherham 0–4 Swindon TownLeague One
- 14 January 2012Rotherham 1–2 Swindon TownLeague Two
- 3 September 2011Swindon Town 3–2 RotherhamLeague Two
Leading scorers: Swindon Town and Rotherham
Swindon Town
GoalsAssists
- A. Drinan50
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Swindon Town carry a model rating of 6.07 against 6.14 for Rotherham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for Swindon Town and 1.24 for Rotherham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swindon Town rate 0.46 in attack and 2.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rotherham rate 0.47 and 1.95.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swindon Town a 0.3% chance of the title and Rotherham 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swindon Town the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Swindon Town against 1.24 for Rotherham. Swindon Town's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.95 for Rotherham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Swindon Town at home · Rotherham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Swindon Town 11, Rotherham 11.
Swindon Town score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Rotherham have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Swindon Town
- vs Grimsby14 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Newport County21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Chesterfield28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
Rotherham
- vs Crawley Town14 Nov · League Twowin 50%
- at Grimsby21 Nov · League Twowin 28%
- vs Oldham28 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.