Perth Glory
vs
Newcastle Jets
A-League prediction
Our model says: Perth Glory 1–2 Newcastle Jets
The model makes it 29% Perth Glory, 25% draw, 46% Newcastle Jets — fair odds of 3.45, 4.00 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.46, Newcastle Jets 1.97.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Newcastle Jets: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Perth Glory's rating is built from 28 A-League matches and Newcastle Jets's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 347 matches.
Key facts
- Perth Glory are 11th on 0 points from 2 games; Newcastle Jets are 6th on 1 point from 1 game — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Newcastle Jets 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2026, ended Perth Glory 1–3 Newcastle Jets.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Newcastle Jets at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
A-League
- L1-2away to Brisbane Roar23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Macarthur FC17 October 2026
Newcastle Jets
A-League
- D1-1Macarthur FC24 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Perth Glory | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| 6 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets
- 13 February 2026Perth Glory 1–3 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 23 November 2025Newcastle Jets 1–2 Perth GloryA-League
- 25 January 2025Newcastle Jets 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
- 14 December 2024Perth Glory 0–4 Newcastle JetsA-League
- 2 October 2024Perth Glory 2–0 Newcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs
- 29 September 2024Perth Glory 2–3 Newcastle JetsFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets
Perth Glory
GoalsAssists
- T. Lawrence10
Newcastle Jets
GoalsAssists
- P. Wood10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Perth Glory carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.4 for Newcastle Jets. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for Perth Glory and 1.97 for Newcastle Jets. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Perth Glory rate 0.52 in attack and 1.84 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Newcastle Jets rate 0.69 and 1.70.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Perth Glory against 1.97 for Newcastle Jets. Perth Glory's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.84 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.7 for Newcastle Jets.
How the model reaches 46% for Newcastle Jets to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Newcastle Jets to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Perth Glory's ratings add 37 points and Newcastle Jets's ratings take away 26 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage35%−2
- Perth Glory's ratings72%+37
- Newcastle Jets's ratings46%−26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Perth Glory
- at Central Coast Mariners21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 34%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 33%
- vs Melbourne City11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Sydney FC18 Dec · A-Leaguewin 28%
Newcastle Jets
- vs Kashiwa Reysol24 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- at Vissel Kobe1 Dec · AFC Champions League Elitewin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.