Benevento
vs
Avellino
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Benevento 1–0 Avellino
The model makes it 45% Benevento, 28% draw, 27% Avellino — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Benevento 1.51, Avellino 1.03.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Benevento's rating is built from 7 Serie B matches and Avellino's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Benevento are 8th on 11 points from 7 games; Avellino are 7th on 11 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Benevento are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Vicenza Virtus.
- Avellino have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Cesena.
- Last 6 meetings: Avellino 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 March 2025, ended Avellino 2–1 Benevento.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Benevento vs Avellino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Benevento at 45% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Benevento vs Avellino
Benevento
Serie B
- D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026
- W2-0Cesena10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese19 September 2026
- W3-1Hellas Verona11 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ascoli5 September 2026
Avellino
Serie B
- D1-1away to Cesena18 October 2026
- W4-1Sampdoria9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
What these results say
- Benevento scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Avellino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Avellino.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benevento | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Avellino | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Benevento vs Avellino
- 30 March 2025Avellino 2–1 BeneventoSerie C - Girone C
- 17 November 2024Benevento 2–2 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
- 15 April 2024Avellino 1–0 BeneventoSerie C - Girone C
- 10 December 2023Benevento 0–1 AvellinoSerie C - Girone C
- 1 May 2017Benevento 2–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 10 December 2016Avellino 1–1 BeneventoSerie B
Leading scorers: Benevento and Avellino
Benevento
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Benevento carry a model rating of 6.6 against 6.53 for Avellino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.51 goals for Benevento and 1.03 for Avellino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Benevento rate 0.74 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Avellino rate 0.72 and 1.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Avellino, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Benevento a 3.2% chance of the title and Avellino 2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Benevento the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Benevento against 1.03 for Avellino. Benevento's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.36 for Avellino.
How the model reaches 45% for Benevento to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Benevento to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Benevento's ratings take away 13 points and Avellino's ratings add 16 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Benevento's ratings29%−13
- Avellino's ratings45%+16
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Benevento at home · Avellino away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
BeneventoAvellino
Benevento are 8th after 7 Serie B matches (between 6th and 17th so far); Avellino are 7th after 7 (between 3rd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Benevento 7, Avellino 7.
Benevento score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Avellino have let in 1 there.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Benevento have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Benevento
- at Sampdoria21 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Empoli24 Nov · Serie Bwin 52%
Avellino
- vs Mantova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Cremonese24 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.