Sydney FC
vs
Central Coast Mariners
A-League prediction
Our model says: Sydney FC 1–0 Central Coast Mariners
The model makes it 42% Sydney FC, 29% draw, 29% Central Coast Mariners — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.40, Central Coast Mariners 1.09.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Sydney FC are 6th on 1 point from 1 game; Central Coast Mariners are 4th on 1 point from 1 game — A-League.
- Last 6 meetings: Sydney FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 6 December 2025, ended Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Sydney FC.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sydney FC at 42% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners
Sydney FC
A-League
- D0-0Western Sydney Wanderers16 October 2026
Central Coast Mariners
A-League
- D2-2Newcastle Jets17 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sydney FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sydney FC vs Central Coast Mariners
- 6 December 2025Central Coast Mariners 1–2 Sydney FCA-League
- 25 October 2025Sydney FC 2–0 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 11 January 2025Sydney FC 4–1 Central Coast MarinersA-League
- 8 December 2024Central Coast Mariners 2–1 Sydney FCA-League
- 18 May 2024Central Coast Mariners 0–0 Sydney FCA-League
- 10 May 2024Sydney FC 1–2 Central Coast MarinersA-League
Leading scorers: Sydney FC and Central Coast Mariners
Sydney FC
No league goals yet this season.
Central Coast Mariners
GoalsAssists
- O. Lavale10
- A. Auglah10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sydney FC carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.25 for Central Coast Mariners. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.40 goals for Sydney FC and 1.09 for Central Coast Mariners. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sydney FC rate 0.45 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Central Coast Mariners rate 0.57 and 1.90.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Central Coast Mariners, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,146 correct results out of 4,446 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sydney FC the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sydney FC against 1.09 for Central Coast Mariners. Sydney FC's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.9 for Central Coast Mariners.
How the model reaches 42% for Sydney FC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Sydney FC to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Sydney FC's ratings take away 23 points and Central Coast Mariners's ratings add 26 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage39%+2
- Sydney FC's ratings16%−23
- Central Coast Mariners's ratings42%+26
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sydney FC
- at Brisbane Roar21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- vs Melbourne Victory6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
- at Auckland FC12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 29%
Central Coast Mariners
- vs Perth Glory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
- vs Auckland FC28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 27%
- vs Brisbane Roar12 Dec · A-Leaguewin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.