Melbourne Victory
vs
Melbourne City
A-League prediction
Our model says: Melbourne Victory 2–1 Melbourne City
The model makes it 43% Melbourne Victory, 26% draw, 31% Melbourne City — fair odds of 2.33, 3.85 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Melbourne Victory 1.73, Melbourne City 1.38.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Melbourne City 1–3 Melbourne Victory.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Melbourne Victory at 43% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City
- 21 February 2026Melbourne City 1–3 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 20 December 2025Melbourne City 0–1 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 8 November 2025Melbourne Victory 0–2 Melbourne CityA-League
- 31 May 2025Melbourne City 1–0 Melbourne VictoryA-League
- 22 February 2025Melbourne Victory 2–2 Melbourne CityA-League
- 21 December 2024Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne CityA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Melbourne Victory carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.3 for Melbourne City. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for Melbourne Victory and 1.38 for Melbourne City. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Melbourne Victory rate 0.64 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Melbourne City rate 0.55 and 1.65.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Melbourne Victory the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Melbourne Victory against 1.38 for Melbourne City. Melbourne Victory's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.65 for Melbourne City.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Melbourne Victory
- vs Central Coast Mariners1 Nov · A-Leaguewin 48%
- at Adelaide United8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 38%
- at Auckland FC21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 33%
- at Sydney FC6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 36%
Melbourne City
- vs Sydney FC31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 34%
- vs Western Sydney Wanderers7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
- at Macarthur FC27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
- at Perth Glory11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.