Western Sydney Wanderers
vs
Auckland FC
A-League prediction
Our model says: Western Sydney Wanderers 1–2 Auckland FC
The model makes it 23% Western Sydney Wanderers, 25% draw, 52% Auckland FC — fair odds of 4.35, 4.00 and 1.92. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Western Sydney Wanderers 1.15, Auckland FC 1.95.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Auckland FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Auckland FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 September 2026, ended Auckland FC 1–3 Western Sydney Wanderers.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Auckland FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Auckland FC at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Head-to-head: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Auckland FC
- 19 September 2026Auckland FC 1–3 Western Sydney WanderersFriendlies Clubs
- 19 December 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 0–2 Auckland FCA-League
- 25 October 2025Auckland FC 1–0 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 5 April 2025Auckland FC 1–1 Western Sydney WanderersA-League
- 26 January 2025Western Sydney Wanderers 0–1 Auckland FCA-League
- 17 August 2024Western Sydney Wanderers 4–2 Auckland FCFriendlies Clubs
The two sides
Western Sydney Wanderers carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.44 for Auckland FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Western Sydney Wanderers and 1.95 for Auckland FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Western Sydney Wanderers rate 0.49 in attack and 1.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Auckland FC rate 0.63 and 1.44.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Auckland FC the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Western Sydney Wanderers against 1.95 for Auckland FC. Western Sydney Wanderers's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.44 for Auckland FC.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Western Sydney Wanderers
- at Macarthur FC31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 31%
- at Melbourne City7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 28%
- vs Adelaide United20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 28%
- vs Perth Glory5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 32%
Auckland FC
- at Brisbane Roar30 Oct · A-Leaguewin 48%
- vs Wellington Phoenix7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 52%
- vs Melbourne Victory21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 41%
- at Central Coast Mariners28 Nov · A-Leaguewin 47%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.