Cesena
vs
Catanzaro
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Cesena 1–2 Catanzaro
The model makes it 36% Cesena, 27% draw, 37% Catanzaro — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Cesena 1.43, Catanzaro 1.46.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Cesena and Catanzaro are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Cesena's rating is built from 45 Serie B matches and Catanzaro's from 50, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 850 matches.
Key facts
- Cesena are 13th on 8 points from 7 games; Catanzaro are bottom on 4 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Cesena have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Avellino.
- Catanzaro are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Hellas Verona.
- Last 5 meetings: Catanzaro 3 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 March 2026, ended Cesena 3–1 Catanzaro.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cesena vs Catanzaro
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Catanzaro at 37% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cesena vs Catanzaro
Cesena
Serie B
- D1-1Avellino18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Benevento10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Juve Stabia18 September 2026
- D2-2Cremonese12 September 2026
- D1-1Mantova6 September 2026
Catanzaro
Serie B
- D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026
- L1-3Mantova11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Sampdoria19 September 2026
- W1-0Carrarese12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sudtirol5 September 2026
What these results say
- Cesena did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Cesena conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cesena scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Catanzaro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Cesena | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Catanzaro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cesena vs Catanzaro
- 21 March 2026Cesena 3–1 CatanzaroSerie B
- 27 December 2025Catanzaro 2–0 CesenaSerie B
- 17 May 2025Catanzaro 1–0 CesenaSerie B
- 1 February 2025Catanzaro 4–2 CesenaSerie B
- 28 August 2024Cesena 2–0 CatanzaroSerie B
Leading scorers: Cesena and Catanzaro
Cesena
GoalsAssists
- C. Shpendi61
Catanzaro
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Cesena carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.55 for Catanzaro. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.43 goals for Cesena and 1.46 for Catanzaro. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cesena rate 0.63 in attack and 1.51 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Catanzaro rate 0.83 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Cesena, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cesena a 0.1% chance of the title and Catanzaro 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Catanzaro the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cesena against 1.46 for Catanzaro. Cesena's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.51 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.52 for Catanzaro.
How the model reaches 37% for Catanzaro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Catanzaro to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Cesena's ratings add 22 points and Catanzaro's ratings take away 15 points, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Cesena's ratings52%+22
- Catanzaro's ratings37%−15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cesena at home · Catanzaro away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Cesena 7, Catanzaro 7.
Cesena score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Catanzaro have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Cesena
- at Hellas Verona21 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs Ascoli24 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
Catanzaro
- vs Palermo21 Nov · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Juve Stabia24 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.