Perth Glory
vs
Adelaide United
A-League prediction
Our model says: Perth Glory 1–2 Adelaide United
The model makes it 32% Perth Glory, 26% draw, 42% Adelaide United — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.49, Adelaide United 1.77.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Last 6 meetings: Adelaide United 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 October 2026, ended Perth Glory 1–3 Adelaide United.
More A-League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Adelaide United at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
Perth Glory
- L1-2away to Macarthur FC17 October 2026
Adelaide United
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
A-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Perth Glory | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where they stand. Adelaide United has not started the league season yet. Full table
Head-to-head: Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
- 3 October 2026Perth Glory 1–3 Adelaide UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 27 September 2026Perth Glory 2–0 Adelaide UnitedFriendlies Clubs
- 20 February 2026Adelaide United 4–0 Perth GloryA-League
- 20 December 2025Perth Glory 0–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 12 April 2025Perth Glory 4–1 Adelaide UnitedA-League
- 29 November 2024Adelaide United 2–2 Perth GloryA-League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Perth Glory carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.35 for Adelaide United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Perth Glory and 1.77 for Adelaide United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Perth Glory rate 0.53 in attack and 1.81 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Adelaide United rate 0.63 and 1.71.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Adelaide United the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Perth Glory against 1.77 for Adelaide United. Perth Glory's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.81 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.71 for Adelaide United.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Perth Glory
- vs Newcastle Jets7 Nov · A-Leaguewin 29%
- at Central Coast Mariners21 Nov · A-Leaguewin 35%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers5 Dec · A-Leaguewin 39%
- vs Melbourne City11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 37%
Adelaide United
- vs Melbourne Victory8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
- at Western Sydney Wanderers20 Nov · A-Leaguewin 46%
- at Wellington Phoenix6 Dec · A-Leaguewin 43%
- vs Macarthur FC11 Dec · A-Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.