Regular Season - 2 · 24 October 2026, 04:00 UTC

Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC A-League prediction

McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle

Our model says: Newcastle Jets 2–1 Macarthur FC

The model makes it 51% Newcastle Jets, 22% draw, 27% Macarthur FC — fair odds of 1.96, 4.55 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).

Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 2.36, Macarthur FC 1.59.

Both teams to score: 72%. Over 2.5 goals: 75%, under 2.5: 25%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Newcastle Jets: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Last 6 meetings: Macarthur FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 April 2026, ended Macarthur FC 3–2 Newcastle Jets.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC

72%
Both teams to score
75%
Over 2.5 goals
25%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Newcastle Jets win Draw Macarthur FC win
  1. 2–19%
  2. 1–18%
  3. 2–27%
  4. 3–17%
  5. 1–26%
  6. 2–05%
  7. 3–25%

Scores read Newcastle Jets first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 53%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Newcastle Jets at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC

Newcastle Jets

  • L1-3Gamba Osaka13 October 2026
  • L1-7away to Kashima15 September 2026

Macarthur FC

No earlier matches on record this season.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Newcastle Jets and Macarthur FC in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
16Newcastle JetsAFC Champions League Elite2002210-80

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Macarthur FC has not started the league season yet. Full tables: AFC Champions League Elite · A-League

Head-to-head: Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur FC

  • 2 April 2026Macarthur FC 3–2 Newcastle JetsA-League
  • 22 February 2026Newcastle Jets 1–0 Macarthur FCA-League
  • 26 December 2025Newcastle Jets 4–5 Macarthur FCA-League
  • 24 August 2025Newcastle Jets 3–0 Macarthur FCAustralia Cup
  • 28 March 2025Macarthur FC 3–3 Newcastle JetsA-League
  • 12 January 2025Newcastle Jets 1–3 Macarthur FCA-League

The two sides

Newcastle Jets carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.25 for Macarthur FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.36 goals for Newcastle Jets and 1.59 for Macarthur FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Newcastle Jets rate 0.72 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Macarthur FC rate 0.60 and 2.00.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Newcastle Jets the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Newcastle Jets against 1.59 for Macarthur FC. Newcastle Jets's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/2 for Macarthur FC.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Newcastle Jets

Macarthur FC

  • vs Western Sydney Wanderers31 Oct · A-Leaguewin 45%
  • vs Brisbane Roar8 Nov · A-Leaguewin 42%
  • at Wellington Phoenix22 Nov · A-Leaguewin 39%
  • vs Melbourne City27 Nov · A-Leaguewin 36%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.