Panathinaikos
vs
CSKA Sofia
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Panathinaikos 2–0 CSKA Sofia
The model makes it 68% Panathinaikos, 19% draw, 13% CSKA Sofia — fair odds of 1.47, 5.26 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Panathinaikos 2.55, CSKA Sofia 0.83.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: Panathinaikos are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Panathinaikos's rating is built from 39 Greek Super League matches and CSKA Sofia's from 47 Bulgarian First League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Panathinaikos are 11th on 3 points from 1 game; CSKA Sofia are 28th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Panathinaikos have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win at home to Asteras Tripolis.
- CSKA Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win away to CSKA 1948.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Panathinaikos at 68% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 349 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 64.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.7%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia
Panathinaikos
- W2-1Borac Banja Luka15 October 2026
CSKA Sofia
- L1-2Monaco15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Panathinaikos and CSKA Sofia
Panathinaikos
GoalsAssists
- C. Dessers40
CSKA Sofia
No player in UEFA Europa Conference League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Panathinaikos carry a model rating of 7.01 against 6.63 for CSKA Sofia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Panathinaikos and 0.83 for CSKA Sofia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Panathinaikos rate 1.15 in attack and 0.83 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; CSKA Sofia rate 0.83 and 1.28.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Panathinaikos the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Panathinaikos against 0.83 for CSKA Sofia. Panathinaikos's attack/defence rating is 1.15/0.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.28 for CSKA Sofia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Panathinaikos's most recent league matches and CSKA Sofia's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Panathinaikos at home · CSKA Sofia away
League matches only, this season — Panathinaikos in the Super League 1, CSKA Sofia in the First League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Panathinaikos 7 in the Super League 1, CSKA Sofia 11 in the First League.
Panathinaikos score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); CSKA Sofia have let in 1 there.
CSKA Sofia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Panathinaikos have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Panathinaikos
- at Iraklis 19088 Nov · Super League 1win 49%
- vs OFI22 Nov · Super League 1win 68%
CSKA Sofia
- vs Slavia Sofia7 Nov · First Leaguewin 56%
- at Botev Plovdiv21 Nov · First Leaguewin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.