Riga
vs
FK Jablonec
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Riga 1–2 FK Jablonec
The model makes it 22% Riga, 24% draw, 54% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 4.55, 4.17 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Riga 1.09, FK Jablonec 1.99.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,433 settled matches.
One-sided: FK Jablonec are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Riga's rating is built from its last 6 matches; FK Jablonec's from 46 Czech Liga matches over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Riga are 22nd on 1 point from 1 game; FK Jablonec are 23rd on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FK Jablonec have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Plzen.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Riga vs FK Jablonec
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FK Jablonec at 54% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 1,080 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Riga vs FK Jablonec
Riga
- D1-1Kairat Almaty15 October 2026
FK Jablonec
- L2-3away to SC Freiburg15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Riga carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.61 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Riga and 1.99 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Riga rate 0.50 in attack and 2.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.78 and 1.26.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Riga, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FK Jablonec the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Riga against 1.99 for FK Jablonec. Riga's attack/defence rating is 0.5/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.26 for FK Jablonec.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Riga
- at Kauno Žalgiris26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 17%
- vs Atalanta10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 8%
- at Borac Banja Luka17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 10%
FK Jablonec
- vs Mlada Boleslav8 Nov · Czech Ligawin 37%
- at Artis21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.