FC Thun
vs
Heart of Midlothian
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: FC Thun 2–1 Heart of Midlothian
The model makes it 41% FC Thun, 24% draw, 35% Heart of Midlothian — fair odds of 2.44, 4.17 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Thun 1.91, Heart of Midlothian 1.74.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- FC Thun are 30th on 0 points from 1 game; Heart of Midlothian are 19th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- FC Thun have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to FC Zurich.
- Heart of Midlothian have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-7 defeat away to Celtic.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Thun at 41% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into FC Thun vs Heart of Midlothian
FC Thun
- L0-1away to Twente15 October 2026
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1FC Nordsjaelland15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Heart of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Thun carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.56 for Heart of Midlothian. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.91 goals for FC Thun and 1.74 for Heart of Midlothian. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Thun rate 0.72 in attack and 1.70 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Heart of Midlothian rate 0.85 and 1.53.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Heart of Midlothian, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Thun the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.91 expected goals for FC Thun against 1.74 for Heart of Midlothian. FC Thun's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.7 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.53 for Heart of Midlothian.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Thun at home · Heart of Midlothian away
League matches only, this season — FC Thun in the Super League, Heart of Midlothian in the Premiership. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: FC Thun 10 in the Super League, Heart of Midlothian 9 in the Premiership.
FC Thun score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Heart of Midlothian have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
FC Thun
- vs FC Basel 18938 Nov · Super Leaguewin 46%
- at BSC Young Boys21 Nov · Super Leaguewin 18%
Heart of Midlothian
- vs Falkirk8 Nov · Premiershipwin 58%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.