League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Ajax vs Atalanta UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Our model says: Ajax 1–0 Atalanta

The model makes it 42% Ajax, 28% draw, 30% Atalanta — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Ajax 1.47, Atalanta 1.15.

Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Ajax are 5th in Eredivisie on 15 points from 8 games; Atalanta are 10th in Serie A on 9 points from 6 games.
  • Ajax are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to NEC Nijmegen.
  • Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Venezia.
  • Last 2 meetings: Atalanta 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 December 2020, ended Ajax 0–1 Atalanta.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Ajax vs Atalanta

53%
Both teams to score
49%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Ajax win Draw Atalanta win
  1. 1–113%
  2. 1–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 0–08%
  5. 2–08%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Ajax first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 37%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ajax at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Ajax vs Atalanta

Ajax

  • D1-1NEC Nijmegen10 October 2026
  • D2-2Excelsior19 September 2026
  • W5-1Willem II15 September 2026
  • W5-1away to Fortuna Sittard12 September 2026
  • L1-3PSV Eindhoven5 September 2026

Atalanta

  • W3-1Venezia12 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Juventus20 September 2026
  • L1-2Cagliari12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to AS Roma5 September 2026
  • W1-0Bologna31 August 2026

What these results say

  • Ajax scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Ajax conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Ajax.
  • Atalanta scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Atalanta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ajax and Atalanta in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
5AjaxEredivisie84312210+1215
10AtalantaSerie A63038809

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Eredivisie · Serie A

Head-to-head: Ajax vs Atalanta

  • 9 December 2020Ajax 0–1 AtalantaUEFA Champions League
  • 27 October 2020Atalanta 2–2 AjaxUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: Ajax and Atalanta

Ajax

GoalsAssists

  • T. Arokodare41
  • J. Brandt40

Atalanta

GoalsAssists

  • N. Krstović31

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

Ajax carry a model rating of 6.99 against 7.05 for Atalanta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Ajax and 1.15 for Atalanta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Ajax rate 1.09 in attack and 0.82 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atalanta rate 1.17 and 0.78.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Ajax the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ajax against 1.15 for Atalanta. Ajax's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.82 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.78 for Atalanta.

Season stats

AjaxAtalanta
8Matches6
4W 3D 1LRecord3W 0D 3L
22 2.8 per gameGoals scored8 1.3 per game
10 1.3 per gameGoals conceded8 1.3 per game
2 of 8Clean sheets1 of 6
0 of 8Failed to score1 of 6
–Penalties scored–
16 2.0 per gameYellow cards4 0.7 per game
0Red cards2
4-3-3 6×Usual shape4-3-3 5×

Ajax at home · Atalanta away

5Played2
1W 3D 1LRecord0W 0D 2L
11–9Goals for – against1–4
0 of 5Clean sheets0 of 2

League matches only, this season — Ajax in the Eredivisie, Atalanta in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Ajax 8 in the Eredivisie, Atalanta 6 in the Serie A.

Ajax scored 116256
Atalanta conceded 021113
Atalanta scored 311111
Ajax conceded 213113

Atalanta score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Ajax have let in 2 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Ajax

Atalanta

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.