SC Braga
vs
Gent
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: SC Braga 1–0 Gent
The model makes it 45% SC Braga, 28% draw, 27% Gent — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: SC Braga 1.49, Gent 1.04.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- SC Braga are 9th in Primeira Liga on 11 points from 7 games; Gent are top in Jupiler Pro League on 22 points from 8 games.
- SC Braga have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Sporting CP.
- Gent are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Zulte Waregem.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 24 November 2016, ended Gent 2–2 SC Braga.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Braga vs Gent
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SC Braga at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into SC Braga vs Gent
SC Braga
- L1-3Sporting CP9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Santa Clara20 September 2026
- W1-0Estoril14 September 2026
- L1-2away to Estrela10 September 2026
- W2-1away to Alverca5 September 2026
Gent
- W2-0away to Zulte Waregem10 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Genk13 September 2026
- W3-0away to Cercle Brugge6 September 2026
- W1-0OH Leuven3 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Braga scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gent went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gent scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gent won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
SC Braga and Gent in their domestic leagues
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SC Braga | Primeira Liga | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 1 | Gent | Jupiler Pro League | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 22 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Primeira Liga · Jupiler Pro League
Head-to-head: SC Braga vs Gent
- 24 November 2016Gent 2–2 SC BragaUEFA Europa League
- 15 September 2016SC Braga 1–1 GentUEFA Europa League
Leading scorers: SC Braga and Gent
SC Braga
GoalsAssists
- Pau Victor31
Gent
GoalsAssists
- J. Y. Vergara Ortega30
- I. Cisse30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SC Braga carry a model rating of 6.97 against 6.98 for Gent. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for SC Braga and 1.04 for Gent. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SC Braga rate 1.14 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gent rate 0.97 and 0.76.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Braga the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SC Braga against 1.04 for Gent. SC Braga's attack/defence rating is 1.14/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.97/0.76 for Gent.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SC Braga at home · Gent away
League matches only, this season — SC Braga in the Primeira Liga, Gent in the Jupiler Pro League. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: SC Braga 7 in the Primeira Liga, Gent 8 in the Jupiler Pro League.
SC Braga score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Gent have let in 1 there.
Gent score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SC Braga have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
SC Braga
- at Nacional25 Oct · Primeira Ligawin 53%
- vs Famalicao1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 49%
- at Aarhus5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 44%
Gent
- vs Anderlecht25 Oct · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 49%
- at Lommel United1 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at KuPS5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 56%
- vs Kortrijk8 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 73%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.