League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Stadion Rajko Mit, Belgrade

Our model says: FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 FC Copenhagen

The model makes it 45% FK Crvena Zvezda, 27% draw, 28% FC Copenhagen — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: FK Crvena Zvezda 1.68, FC Copenhagen 1.23.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • FK Crvena Zvezda are top in Super Liga on 31 points from 11 games; FC Copenhagen are top in Superliga on 24 points from 10 games.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win away to Radnicki 1923.
  • FC Copenhagen have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Midtjylland.
  • Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 13 August 2019, ended FC Copenhagen 2–2 FK Crvena Zvezda.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

58%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

FK Crvena Zvezda win Draw FC Copenhagen win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 2–19%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–27%
  6. 0–16%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read FK Crvena Zvezda first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 43%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FK Crvena Zvezda at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • W3-0away to Radnicki 192310 October 2026
  • W3-0Radnicki NIS20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Železničar Pančevo17 September 2026
  • W1-0away to IMT Novi Beograd13 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Radnik Surdulica10 September 2026

FC Copenhagen

  • L1-2away to FC Midtjylland11 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Brondby20 September 2026
  • W2-0AC Horsens11 September 2026
  • W5-0away to Odense6 September 2026
  • W2-0FC Nordsjaelland3 September 2026

What these results say

  • FK Crvena Zvezda went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FK Crvena Zvezda scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • FC Copenhagen kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
1FK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga111010273+2431
1FC CopenhagenSuperliga108022410+1424

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Super Liga · Superliga

Head-to-head: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen

  • 13 August 2019FC Copenhagen 2–2 FK Crvena ZvezdaUEFA Champions League
  • 6 August 2019FK Crvena Zvezda 1–1 FC CopenhagenUEFA Champions League

Leading scorers: FK Crvena Zvezda and FC Copenhagen

FK Crvena Zvezda

GoalsAssists

  • V. Kostov42

FC Copenhagen

GoalsAssists

  • M. Elyounoussi72
  • B. Meling41

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Two sides the ratings cannot separate

FK Crvena Zvezda carry a model rating of 6.81 against 6.83 for FC Copenhagen. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for FK Crvena Zvezda and 1.23 for FC Copenhagen. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

FK Crvena Zvezda rate 0.91 in attack and 0.99 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Copenhagen rate 1.03 and 1.07.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives FK Crvena Zvezda the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for FK Crvena Zvezda against 1.23 for FC Copenhagen. FK Crvena Zvezda's attack/defence rating is 0.91/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.07 for FC Copenhagen.

Season stats

FK Crvena ZvezdaFC Copenhagen
11Matches10
10W 1D 0LRecord8W 0D 2L
27 2.5 per gameGoals scored24 2.4 per game
3 0.3 per gameGoals conceded10 1.0 per game
8 of 11Clean sheets5 of 10
1 of 11Failed to score1 of 10
1 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
25 2.3 per gameYellow cards20 2.0 per game
1Red cards0
3-2-4-1 7×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

FK Crvena Zvezda at home · FC Copenhagen away

6Played6
6W 0D 0LRecord4W 0D 2L
19–2Goals for – against14–7
4 of 6Clean sheets3 of 6

League matches only, this season — FK Crvena Zvezda in the Super Liga, FC Copenhagen in the Superliga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: FK Crvena Zvezda 11 in the Super Liga, FC Copenhagen 10 in the Superliga.

FK Crvena Zvezda scored 354815
FC Copenhagen conceded 322020

FK Crvena Zvezda score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); FC Copenhagen have let in 0 there.

FC Copenhagen scored 635335
FK Crvena Zvezda conceded 103000

FC Copenhagen score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); FK Crvena Zvezda have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • at OFK Beograd24 Oct · Super Ligawin 64%
  • at Macva1 Nov · Super Ligawin 68%
  • vs Inter Club d'Escaldes5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 72%

FC Copenhagen

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.