Mjallby AIF
vs
Borac Banja Luka
UEFA Europa Conference League prediction
Our model says: Mjallby AIF 0–1 Borac Banja Luka
The model makes it 31% Mjallby AIF, 28% draw, 41% Borac Banja Luka — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Mjallby AIF 1.20, Borac Banja Luka 1.45.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,036 settled matches.
Edge to Borac Banja Luka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 22 October 2026. Mjallby AIF's rating is built from 54 Allsvenskan matches and Borac Banja Luka's from 45 Bosnian Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,094 matches.
Key facts
- Mjallby AIF are 5th on 3 points from 1 game; Borac Banja Luka are 26th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Europa Conference League.
- Mjallby AIF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Vasteras SK FK.
- Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to BSK Banja Luka.
More Conference League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borac Banja Luka at 41% here. Across 4,394 settled matches (as of 22 October 2026), 2,039 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mjallby AIF vs Borac Banja Luka
Mjallby AIF
- W2-0Inter Club d'Escaldes15 October 2026
Borac Banja Luka
- L1-2away to Panathinaikos15 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
The two sides
Mjallby AIF carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.59 for Borac Banja Luka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.45 for Borac Banja Luka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Mjallby AIF rate 0.56 in attack and 1.65 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Borac Banja Luka rate 0.73 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Mjallby AIF, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,124 correct results out of 4,403 settled predictions (48%), with 444 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Mjallby AIF against 1.45 for Borac Banja Luka. Mjallby AIF's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.65 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.24 for Borac Banja Luka.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often Mjallby AIF's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) and Borac Banja Luka's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Mjallby AIF at home · Borac Banja Luka away
League matches only, this season — Mjallby AIF in the Allsvenskan, Borac Banja Luka in the Premijer Liga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Mjallby AIF 24 in the Allsvenskan, Borac Banja Luka 9 in the Premijer Liga.
Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Mjallby AIF have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Mjallby AIF
- at IF Brommapojkarna8 Nov · Allsvenskanwin 30%
Borac Banja Luka
- vs Radnik Bijeljina7 Nov · Premijer Ligawin 77%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.