Palermo
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Palermo 2–0 Vicenza Virtus
The model makes it 66% Palermo, 20% draw, 14% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 1.52, 5.00 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Palermo 2.48, Vicenza Virtus 0.91.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Palermo are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Key facts
- Palermo are top on 19 points from 7 games; Vicenza Virtus are 17th on 6 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Palermo are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-0 win away to Mantova.
- Vicenza Virtus have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Benevento.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palermo at 66% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 332 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 73.9%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal. The full record.
Form going into Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
Palermo
- W2-0away to Mantova17 October 2026
- W4-2away to Empoli10 October 2026
- W2-1Padova19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avellino13 September 2026
- W3-1Sampdoria7 September 2026
Vicenza Virtus
- D2-2away to Benevento17 October 2026
- L0-3Pisa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
What these results say
- Palermo went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palermo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Palermo won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 17 | Vicenza Virtus | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
- 5 August 2018Palermo 3–3 Vicenza VirtusCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Palermo and Vicenza Virtus
Palermo
GoalsAssists
- D. Johnsen45
- J. Pohjanpalo22
- A. Palumbo21
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Palermo carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.39 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Palermo and 0.91 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palermo rate 0.94 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 0.70 and 1.76.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palermo a 57.2% chance of the title and Vicenza Virtus 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palermo the highest probability at 66%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Palermo against 0.91 for Vicenza Virtus. Palermo's attack/defence rating is 0.94/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.76 for Vicenza Virtus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Palermo at home · Vicenza Virtus away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
PalermoVicenza Virtus
Palermo are 1st after 7 Serie B matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Vicenza Virtus are 16th after 7 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Palermo 7, Vicenza Virtus 7.
Palermo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Vicenza Virtus have let in 4 there.
Vicenza Virtus score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Palermo have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Palermo
- at Ascoli6 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
- at Catanzaro21 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
- vs Sudtirol24 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
Vicenza Virtus
- vs Cremonese8 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Ascoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 20%
- vs Carrarese24 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.