Hellas Verona
vs
Carrarese
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Hellas Verona 1–0 Carrarese
The model makes it 49% Hellas Verona, 29% draw, 22% Carrarese — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Hellas Verona 1.45, Carrarese 0.81.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Hellas Verona: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Hellas Verona are 10th on 8 points from 7 games; Carrarese are 12th on 7 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Hellas Verona have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Catanzaro.
- Carrarese have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Modena.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Hellas Verona vs Carrarese
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hellas Verona at 49% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Hellas Verona vs Carrarese
Hellas Verona
- D2-2Catanzaro16 October 2026
- L2-3away to Modena11 October 2026
- W2-1Vicenza Virtus20 September 2026
- L1-3away to Benevento11 September 2026
- W5-0Arezzo6 September 2026
Carrarese
- W2-1Modena17 October 2026
- W2-0away to Padova11 October 2026
- L0-1Benevento19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Catanzaro12 September 2026
- L0-1Empoli5 September 2026
What these results say
- Hellas Verona scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Hellas Verona had three goals or more.
- Hellas Verona conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Carrarese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Carrarese had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hellas Verona | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 8 |
| 12 | Carrarese | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Hellas Verona and Carrarese
Hellas Verona
GoalsAssists
- D. Mosquera60
- S. Mulattieri21
- S. Cerbone20
Carrarese
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Hellas Verona carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.51 for Carrarese. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.45 goals for Hellas Verona and 0.81 for Carrarese. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Hellas Verona rate 0.76 in attack and 1.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Carrarese rate 0.63 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Hellas Verona a 4.2% chance of the title and Carrarese 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Hellas Verona the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hellas Verona against 0.81 for Carrarese. Hellas Verona's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.27 for Carrarese.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Hellas Verona at home · Carrarese away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Hellas VeronaCarrarese
Hellas Verona are 9th after 7 Serie B matches (between 5th and 16th so far); Carrarese are 12th after 7 (between 11th and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Hellas Verona 7, Carrarese 7.
Hellas Verona score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Carrarese have let in 1 there.
Carrarese score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Hellas Verona have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Hellas Verona
- at Mantova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- vs Cesena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 55%
- at Virtus Entella24 Nov · Serie Bwin 36%
Carrarese
- vs Sampdoria8 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
- vs Virtus Entella21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
- at Vicenza Virtus24 Nov · Serie Bwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.