Empoli
vs
Juve Stabia
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Empoli 1–0 Juve Stabia
The model makes it 38% Empoli, 30% draw, 32% Juve Stabia — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Empoli 1.26, Juve Stabia 1.09.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Empoli are 13th on 7 points from 7 games; Juve Stabia are bottom on 2 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Empoli are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Ascoli.
- Juve Stabia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Virtus Entella.
- Last 4 meetings: Juve Stabia 3 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2026, ended Empoli 1–2 Juve Stabia.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Empoli vs Juve Stabia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Empoli at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Empoli vs Juve Stabia
Empoli
- D1-1away to Ascoli17 October 2026
- L2-4Palermo10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
Juve Stabia
- D1-1away to Virtus Entella10 October 2026
- D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
- L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026
What these results say
- Empoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Empoli | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Juve Stabia
- 11 February 2026Empoli 1–2 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 13 December 2025Juve Stabia 2–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 18 January 2020Juve Stabia 1–0 EmpoliSerie B
- 25 August 2019Empoli 2–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
Leading scorers: Empoli and Juve Stabia
Empoli
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Juve Stabia
GoalsAssists
- Antonio Di Nardo40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Empoli carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.51 for Juve Stabia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for Empoli and 1.09 for Juve Stabia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Empoli rate 0.66 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Juve Stabia rate 0.63 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Empoli a 0.2% chance of the title and Juve Stabia 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Empoli the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Empoli against 1.09 for Juve Stabia. Empoli's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.27 for Juve Stabia.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Empoli at home · Juve Stabia away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
EmpoliJuve Stabia
Empoli are 12th after 7 Serie B matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Juve Stabia are 19th after 6 (between 18th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Empoli 7, Juve Stabia 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Empoli
- at Padova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Pisa21 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
- at Benevento24 Nov · Serie Bwin 23%
Juve Stabia
- vs Arezzo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Modena21 Nov · Serie Bwin 24%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.