Omonia 29is Maiou
vs
Nea Salamis
1. Division prediction
Our model says: Omonia 29is Maiou 2–1 Nea Salamis
The model makes it 52% Omonia 29is Maiou, 22% draw, 26% Nea Salamis — fair odds of 1.92, 4.55 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Omonia 29is Maiou 2.48, Nea Salamis 1.65.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Omonia 29is Maiou are 9th on 5 points from 5 games; Nea Salamis are 11th on 4 points from 6 games — 1. Division.
- Omonia 29is Maiou are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to AEL.
- Nea Salamis have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Apollon Limassol.
- Last 6 meetings: Nea Salamis 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Omonia 29is Maiou 2–2 Nea Salamis.
More Cypriot First Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Omonia 29is Maiou vs Nea Salamis
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Omonia 29is Maiou at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Omonia 29is Maiou vs Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou
- L1-2away to AEL11 October 2026
- L1-2AEK Larnaca18 September 2026
- D3-3away to Olympiakos13 September 2026
- D2-2Karmiotissa4 September 2026
- W3-0away to Krasava Ypsonas28 August 2026
Nea Salamis
- L2-4away to Apollon Limassol17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Apoel Nicosia10 October 2026
- W3-0Anorthosis19 September 2026
- L1-2away to AEL11 September 2026
- L1-4AEK Larnaca6 September 2026
What these results say
- Omonia 29is Maiou scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Omonia 29is Maiou had three goals or more.
- Omonia 29is Maiou failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nea Salamis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Nea Salamis had three goals or more.
- Nea Salamis failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Omonia 29is Maiou | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Nea Salamis | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Omonia 29is Maiou vs Nea Salamis
- 22 March 2026Omonia 29is Maiou 2–2 Nea Salamis2. Division
- 7 February 2026Nea Salamis 2–1 Omonia 29is Maiou2. Division
- 22 November 2025Omonia 29is Maiou 2–3 Nea Salamis2. Division
- 5 May 2025Omonia 29is Maiou 0–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 22 February 2025Omonia 29is Maiou 2–1 Nea Salamis1. Division
- 23 November 2024Nea Salamis 0–1 Omonia 29is Maiou1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Omonia 29is Maiou carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.48 for Nea Salamis. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.48 goals for Omonia 29is Maiou and 1.65 for Nea Salamis. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Omonia 29is Maiou rate 0.82 in attack and 1.63 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Nea Salamis rate 0.84 and 1.86.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Omonia 29is Maiou the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Omonia 29is Maiou against 1.65 for Nea Salamis. Omonia 29is Maiou's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.63 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.86 for Nea Salamis.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Omonia 29is Maiou at home · Nea Salamis away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: Omonia 29is Maiou 5, Nea Salamis 6.
Omonia 29is Maiou score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Nea Salamis have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Omonia 29is Maiou
- at Pafos8 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 18%
- at Apollon Limassol22 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 20%
- vs Omonia Aradippou27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 45%
Nea Salamis
- vs Omonia Aradippou6 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- at Aris21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 23%
- vs Omonia Nicosia30 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 15%
- at Krasava Ypsonas3 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.