Empoli
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Empoli 2–1 Vicenza Virtus
The model makes it 48% Empoli, 26% draw, 26% Vicenza Virtus — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Empoli 1.76, Vicenza Virtus 1.15.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Empoli are 13th on 6 points from 6 games; Vicenza Virtus are 16th on 5 points from 6 games — Serie B.
- Empoli are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Palermo.
- Vicenza Virtus have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Pisa.
- Last 4 meetings: Empoli 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 August 2021, ended Empoli 4–2 Vicenza.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Empoli at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus
Empoli
- L2-4Palermo10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Modena20 September 2026
- L0-1Arezzo11 September 2026
- W1-0away to Carrarese5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Mantova30 August 2026
Vicenza Virtus
- L0-3Pisa10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hellas Verona20 September 2026
- D1-1Juve Stabia12 September 2026
- D2-2away to Virtus Entella6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Avellino29 August 2026
What these results say
- Empoli failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Empoli conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vicenza Virtus conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vicenza Virtus had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Vicenza Virtus | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Empoli
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 25% today
Vicenza Virtus
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 52% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Empoli vs Vicenza Virtus
- 15 August 2021Empoli 4–2 VicenzaCoppa Italia
- 13 March 2021Vicenza Virtus 0–2 EmpoliSerie B
- 28 November 2020Empoli 2–2 Vicenza VirtusSerie B
- 13 August 2016Empoli 2–0 Vicenza VirtusCoppa Italia
Leading scorers: Empoli and Vicenza Virtus
Empoli
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Vicenza Virtus
GoalsAssists
- S. Merkaj21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Empoli carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.35 for Vicenza Virtus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.76 goals for Empoli and 1.15 for Vicenza Virtus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Empoli rate 0.66 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vicenza Virtus rate 0.65 and 1.78.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Empoli a 0.1% chance of the title and Vicenza Virtus 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Empoli the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Empoli against 1.15 for Vicenza Virtus. Empoli's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.78 for Vicenza Virtus.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Empoli at home · Vicenza Virtus away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Empoli 6, Vicenza Virtus 6.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Empoli
- at Cesena27 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Juve Stabia1 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- at Padova7 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
- vs Pisa21 Nov · Serie Bwin 33%
Vicenza Virtus
- vs Modena27 Oct · Serie Bwin 28%
- at Palermo1 Nov · Serie Bwin 14%
- vs Cremonese8 Nov · Serie Bwin 26%
- at Ascoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.