Arezzo
vs
Ascoli
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Arezzo 0–1 Ascoli
The model makes it 27% Arezzo, 30% draw, 43% Ascoli — fair odds of 3.70, 3.33 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Arezzo 0.97, Ascoli 1.35.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Ascoli: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Arezzo are 15th on 7 points from 6 games; Ascoli are 6th on 12 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Arezzo have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Cremonese.
- Ascoli are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Empoli.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 30 March 2026, ended Arezzo 1–2 Ascoli.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Arezzo vs Ascoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ascoli at 43% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Arezzo vs Ascoli
Arezzo
- D0-0Cremonese10 October 2026
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
Ascoli
- D1-1Empoli17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Sudtirol10 October 2026
- W3-1Avellino19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Padova12 September 2026
- W1-0Benevento5 September 2026
What these results say
- Arezzo failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ascoli had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Arezzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Arezzo vs Ascoli
- 30 March 2026Arezzo 1–2 AscoliSerie C - Girone B
- 23 November 2025Ascoli 0–2 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 15 March 2025Ascoli 1–0 ArezzoSerie C - Girone B
- 3 November 2024Arezzo 1–1 AscoliSerie C - Girone B
- 18 August 2024Arezzo 2–1 AscoliCoppa Italia Serie C
Leading scorers: Arezzo and Ascoli
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Ascoli
GoalsAssists
- A. Silipo30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Arezzo carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.63 for Ascoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for Arezzo and 1.35 for Ascoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Arezzo rate 0.62 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Ascoli rate 0.65 and 1.04.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Arezzo a 0% chance of the title and Ascoli 5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ascoli the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Arezzo against 1.35 for Ascoli. Arezzo's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.04 for Ascoli.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Arezzo at home · Ascoli away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ArezzoAscoli
Arezzo are 12th after 6 Serie B matches (between 2nd and 13th so far); Ascoli are 5th after 7 (between 2nd and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Arezzo 6, Ascoli 7.
Ascoli score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Arezzo have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Arezzo
- at Juve Stabia7 Nov · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Padova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 37%
Ascoli
- vs Palermo6 Nov · Serie Bwin 34%
- vs Vicenza Virtus21 Nov · Serie Bwin 53%
- at Cesena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.