Juve Stabia
vs
Sudtirol
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Juve Stabia 1–0 Sudtirol
The model makes it 36% Juve Stabia, 32% draw, 32% Sudtirol — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Juve Stabia 1.11, Sudtirol 0.99.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Juve Stabia are 18th on 3 points from 5 games; Sudtirol are 2nd on 11 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Juve Stabia are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cesena.
- Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win away to Arezzo.
- Last 4 meetings: Juve Stabia 2 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 May 2026, ended Sudtirol 1–1 Juve Stabia.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Juve Stabia at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
- D1-1Cesena18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Vicenza Virtus12 September 2026
- L0-3Pisa6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Sampdoria29 August 2026
- L0-1away to Palermo23 August 2026
Sudtirol
- W4-1away to Arezzo20 September 2026
- D1-1Modena12 September 2026
- W2-0Catanzaro5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Benevento30 August 2026
- W1-0Virtus Entella22 August 2026
What these results say
- Juve Stabia conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Juve Stabia failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Sudtirol scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sudtirol had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sudtirol | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol
- 8 May 2026Sudtirol 1–1 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 27 December 2025Juve Stabia 1–0 SudtirolSerie B
- 27 April 2025Sudtirol 2–0 Juve StabiaSerie B
- 6 December 2024Juve Stabia 2–1 SudtirolSerie B
Leading scorers: Juve Stabia and Sudtirol
Juve Stabia
- Antonio Di Nardo3 goals
Sudtirol
- K. Mixtur2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Juve Stabia carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.57 for Sudtirol. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.11 goals for Juve Stabia and 0.99 for Sudtirol. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Juve Stabia rate 0.63 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sudtirol rate 0.66 and 1.18.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sudtirol, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Juve Stabia the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Juve Stabia against 0.99 for Sudtirol. Juve Stabia's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.18 for Sudtirol.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Juve Stabia at home · Sudtirol away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Juve Stabia 5, Sudtirol 5.
Sudtirol score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Juve Stabia have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Juve Stabia
- at Cremonese24 Oct · Serie Bwin 24%
- vs Hellas Verona27 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Empoli31 Oct · Serie Bwin 31%
- vs Arezzo7 Nov · Serie Bwin 47%
Sudtirol
- vs Sampdoria24 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Padova27 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- vs Cesena31 Oct · Serie Bwin 44%
- at Pisa7 Nov · Serie Bwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.