Avellino
vs
Pisa
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Avellino 1–0 Pisa
The model makes it 38% Avellino, 29% draw, 33% Pisa — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Avellino 1.35, Pisa 1.23.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Avellino are 8th on 10 points from 6 games; Pisa are 3rd on 13 points from 7 games — Serie B.
- Avellino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Sampdoria.
- Pisa are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Cremonese.
- Last 2 meetings: Avellino 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 April 2017, ended Pisa 0–1 Avellino.
More Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Avellino vs Pisa
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Avellino at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Avellino vs Pisa
Avellino
- W4-1Sampdoria9 October 2026
- L1-3away to Ascoli19 September 2026
- D1-1Palermo13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Modena6 September 2026
- W3-0Vicenza Virtus29 August 2026
Pisa
- W3-1Cremonese17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Vicenza Virtus10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Mantova20 September 2026
- L1-4Virtus Entella11 September 2026
- W3-0away to Juve Stabia6 September 2026
What these results say
- Avellino scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pisa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Pisa had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Avellino | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 3 | Pisa | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Avellino vs Pisa
- 17 April 2017Pisa 0–1 AvellinoSerie B
- 19 November 2016Avellino 1–0 PisaSerie B
Leading scorers: Avellino and Pisa
Avellino
GoalsAssists
- R. Russo42
- M. Besaggio30
Pisa
GoalsAssists
- F. Pittarello21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Avellino carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.62 for Pisa. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Avellino and 1.23 for Pisa. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Avellino rate 0.73 in attack and 1.37 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pisa rate 0.77 and 1.23.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Pisa, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Avellino a 1.5% chance of the title and Pisa 8.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,973 correct results out of 4,112 settled predictions (48%), with 412 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Avellino the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Avellino against 1.23 for Pisa. Avellino's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.37 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.23 for Pisa.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Avellino at home · Pisa away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
AvellinoPisa
Avellino are 4th after 6 Serie B matches (between 3rd and 17th so far); Pisa are 3rd after 7 (between 3rd and 18th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Juve Stabia −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Avellino 6, Pisa 7.
Avellino score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Pisa have let in 1 there.
Pisa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Avellino have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Avellino
- at Benevento7 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Mantova21 Nov · Serie Bwin 40%
Pisa
- vs Sudtirol7 Nov · Serie Bwin 43%
- at Empoli21 Nov · Serie Bwin 38%
- vs Modena24 Nov · Serie Bwin 42%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.