Sampdoria
vs
Arezzo
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Sampdoria 2–1 Arezzo
The model makes it 44% Sampdoria, 28% draw, 28% Arezzo — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sampdoria 1.69, Arezzo 1.14.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Sampdoria are 17th on 4 points from 5 games; Arezzo are 12th on 6 points from 5 games — Serie B.
- Sampdoria have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Catanzaro.
- Arezzo have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-4 defeat at home to Sudtirol.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sampdoria vs Arezzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sampdoria at 44% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sampdoria vs Arezzo
Sampdoria
- W2-1Catanzaro19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Mantova13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Palermo7 September 2026
- L1-2Juve Stabia29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Cesena23 August 2026
Arezzo
- L1-4Sudtirol20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Empoli11 September 2026
- L0-5away to Hellas Verona6 September 2026
- L2-3Palermo30 August 2026
- W2-1away to Avellino22 August 2026
What these results say
- Sampdoria conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sampdoria scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Arezzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Arezzo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sampdoria | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Arezzo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Sampdoria and Arezzo
Sampdoria
- L. Insigne2 goals
Arezzo
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sampdoria carry a model rating of 6.41 against 6.35 for Arezzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.69 goals for Sampdoria and 1.14 for Arezzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sampdoria rate 0.57 in attack and 1.39 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Arezzo rate 0.71 and 1.98.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Arezzo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sampdoria the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Sampdoria against 1.14 for Arezzo. Sampdoria's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.39 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/1.98 for Arezzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sampdoria at home · Arezzo away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Sampdoria 5, Arezzo 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sampdoria
- at Sudtirol24 Oct · Serie Bwin 25%
- at Ascoli27 Oct · Serie Bwin 23%
- vs Virtus Entella31 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
- at Carrarese7 Nov · Serie Bwin 29%
Arezzo
- vs Benevento24 Oct · Serie Bwin 31%
- at Carrarese27 Oct · Serie Bwin 28%
- vs Ascoli31 Oct · Serie Bwin 29%
- at Juve Stabia7 Nov · Serie Bwin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.